My Trend Asset Allocation Model has performed well by beating a 60/40 benchmark on an out-of-sample basis in the last few years. The early version of the Trend Model relied exclusively on commodity prices for signals of global reflation and deflation. While the inputs have changed to include global equity prices, this nevertheless raises some concerns for equity investors.
Commodity prices are weakening, which could be a signal of global economic deceleration. In particular, the cyclically sensitive industrial metals are losing momentum and showing signs of violating a rising trend line.
The full post can be found here.
Commodity weakness = Global slowdown?
November 12, 2021 at 19:18 PM EST