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JPMorgan warns of a sharp decline in S&P 500 to 3,500 level

By: Invezz
spx outlook jpmorgan warns decline to 3,500

S&P 500 has had a strong 2023 but the coming year will likely be in a stark contrast, says Jason Hunter – the Head of Technical Strategy at JPMorgan.

S&P 500 could tank 23% from here

Hunter agreed that the U.S. stocks could end this year on a solid note but warned of a steep decline all the way back to the 3,500 level in 2024.

If true, that would mean an alarming 23% decline from here.

Watch here:

The JPMorgan expert is super dovish on the equities market primarily because “the odds are stacked in favour of a hard landing”. Signs of deceleration in the ongoing rally have already started to pop up, he added.

Note that Dubravko Lakos-Bujas – the chief global equity strategist of JPMorgan also doesn’t expect the next year to be a good one for S&P 500.

Hunter still sees a recession ahead

On Monday, Jason Hunter quoted historical data in his research note to explain why he continues to believe a recession is coming.

Take yield curve [inversions] that go back [into 1960s], as we move into next year, you tend to find your way into a bear market that’s eventually associated with a recession way more often than not.

The JPMorgan expert is bearish also because markets are pricing in rate cuts next year – and so, any surprise on that front could lead to weakness.

Oil sees very volatile moves around recessions

In a recession = oil collapses

After a recession = oil spikes

— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) December 4, 2023

Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell also said that it was premature to expect aggressive rate cuts in 2024. S&P 500 is currently up 19% for the year.  

The post JPMorgan warns of a sharp decline in S&P 500 to 3,500 level appeared first on Invezz

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