Apple stock received a rare downgrade Wednesday over concerns about slowing U.S. sales and restrictive iPhone promotions.
Analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets cut the shares to sector weight, which signals a performance in line with the industry, from overweight. The majority of Wall Street analysts rate the stock a buy, according to Thomson One.
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"We see the stock trading at rich multiples and expect trends in key markets such as the U.S. to remain soft, which puts pressure on Int'l for growth," analysts said. "Consensus expects every single international segment to show accelerating year-over-year growth in fiscal year 2024 versus fiscal year 2023, though we struggle to understand why that will be the case."
KeyBanc based its predictions on a modest weakness in sales, upgrade rates moving toward all-time lows, a slowing postpaid growth environment and iPhone promotions weighted toward higher priced plans from U.S. carriers.
Apple shares have gained over 33% this year, ranging between $124 and $198, according to KeyBanc. By comparison the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained 26%.
Roughly 37% of Apple’s revenue is generated in the U.S., which is the company’s largest geographic segment, but bank analysts think the U.S. will experience its fourth consecutive year-over-year decline in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023 with the potential of carrying into the first quarter of 2024.
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The downgrade comes just weeks after CEO Tim Cook debuted the new iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max hitting key stores including New York City's Fifth Avenue location.
Cook also traveled internationally to promote the launch including a stop in Argentina.
More recently Apple users complained about the device overheating. Over the weekend, the company disclosed a glitch in the iOS 17 software that’s contributing to the phones feeling hotter than they should, but it also said that the issue doesn’t pose a safety or injury risk and won’t have a negative effect on the phone’s long-term performance.
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Despite the downgrade and KeyBanc reducing its iPhone unit estimates, analysts see a 3.5% spike in Apple’s revenue in fiscal 2024 while margins are expected to grow at a slower pace.
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Apple is the world's most valuable company with a market value of $2.7 trillion.
