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Warren Buffett made 12 predictions about bitcoin, table tennis, and his death — here's how they turned out

Paul Morigi / Stringer / Getty Images

  • Legendary investor Warren Buffett avoids making predictions, but we've gathered 12 of his best guesses about cryptocurrency, table tennis, and even his own death.
  • We've detailed each prediction and assessed its accuracy in the slideshow below.

The legendary investor Warren Buffett knows better than to make predictions. "We have no idea - and never have had - whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate term future," he wrote in his 1986 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.

Yet the Sage of Omaha couldn't resist making a few guesses about the future over the years. We've gathered 12 of his most intriguing predictions and assessed their accuracy in the slideshow below:

1. CryptocurrenciesThomson Reuters

Prediction:

"In terms of cryptocurrencies...I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending," Buffett said in an interview wih CNBC in January 2018. "When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know."

He added: "If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I'd be glad to do it but I would never short a dime's worth."

Outcome:

Buffett has been right about cryptocurrencies so far. At the time of his prediction, bitcoin traded above $14,000. The cryptocurrency slumped below $4,000 by the end of 2018, and it currently trades around $5,200.



2. Flat EarthFlat Earth

Prediction:

"Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish," Buffett claimed in a speech at Columbia Business school in May 1984

Outcome:

Buffett may have been making a point about stubborn denialism in financial markets, but his prediction about so-called "Flat Earthers" was correct — they've enjoyed a resurgence in recent years.



3. Berkshire HathawayREUTERS/Rick Wilking

Prediction:

"It is fitting that the visit of Halley's Comet coincided with this percentage gain: neither will be seen again in my lifetime," Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders after the conglomerate grew its net worth by 48.2% in 1985.

He also predicted the 23.2% compounded annual growth in the company's book value per share that year was "another percentage that will not be repeated."

Outcome:

It took nearly 20 years for Buffett to prove himself wrong on the first count. Berkshire Hathaway's net worth jumped 48.3% in 1998, although that was largely because the company issued shares for acquisitions. "Normally, a gain of 48.3% would call for handsprings — but not this year," he told investors.

Buffett's second prediction was way off the mark. Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share rose by 23.3% in the next year, 1986. It has also grown by at least 23.2% in more than 10 other years since 1985.

 



4. SearsGetty/Scott Olson

Prediction:

Buffett told students at the University of Kansas in May 2005 that Sears Chairman Eddie Lampert would struggle to revitalize the department-store chain. He warned that rivals such as Walmart and Costco could undercut Sears, which was acquired by rival Kmart in 2005.

"Eddie is a very smart guy, but putting Kmart and Sears together is a tough hand," Buffett said. "Turning around a retailer that has been slipping for a long time would be very difficult."

Outcome:

Buffett was right on the money — Sears filed for bankruptcy in October 2018. However, some hope remains: Lampert recently won court approval to buy the 126-year-old retailer out of bankruptcy and escape liquidation.



5. ABC, Geico, and The Washington PostGEICO / Facebook

Prediction:

"We expect to keep permanently our three primary holdings, Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., Geico Corporation, and The Washington Post," Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in his 1986 letter. 

"Even if these securities were to appear significantly overpriced, we would not anticipate selling them, just as we would not sell See's [Candies] or Buffalo Evening News if someone were to offer us a price far above what we believe those businesses are worth," he added.

Outcome: 

Despite his best intentions, Buffett can't resist a great deal. Berkshire Hathaway sold its stake in Capital Cities/ABC to The Walt Disney Company in 1996 in a cash-and-stock deal worth $2.5 billion.

The Sage of Omaha also flogged his company's 28% stake in The Washington Post to Graham Holdings in a deal worth more than $1.1 billion in 2014, according to The Washington Post. The Graham family sold The Post to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos in a $250 million deal in 2013.

Berkshire Hathaway remains a major investor in Geico, See's Candies, and Buffalo Evening News.

 



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

See Also:

SEE ALSO: Here are the 21 most brilliant quotes from Warren Buffett, the world's most famous and successful investor

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