II.1
Interest Earning Assets
Interest
earning assets remained practically constant overall, having expanded only 0.6%
QoQ and 20.2% YoY. However, these assets moved towards higher yielding segments,
including loans which remained as our main growth drivers.
Interest Earning Assets
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07
|
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
BCRP
and Other Banks
|
|
|
2,875,230 |
|
|
|
3,194,923 |
|
|
|
2,255,572 |
|
|
|
27.5 |
% |
|
|
-10.0 |
% |
Interbank
funds
|
|
|
28,662 |
|
|
|
113,749 |
|
|
|
5,000 |
|
|
|
473.2 |
% |
|
|
-74.8 |
% |
Trading
Securities
|
|
|
36,084 |
|
|
|
32,468 |
|
|
|
102,316 |
|
|
|
-64.7 |
% |
|
|
11.1 |
% |
Available
For Sale Securities
|
|
|
3,406,248 |
|
|
|
3,512,873 |
|
|
|
3,377,263 |
|
|
|
0.9 |
% |
|
|
-3.0 |
% |
Current
Loans, net
|
|
|
10,362,659 |
|
|
|
9,759,601 |
|
|
|
8,164,334 |
|
|
|
26.9 |
% |
|
|
6.2 |
% |
Total
interest earning assets
|
|
|
16,708,883 |
|
|
|
16,613,614 |
|
|
|
13,904,485 |
|
|
|
20.2 |
% |
|
|
0.6 |
% |
IEA did
not change significantly and grew only 0.6% QoQ. However, YoY they grew 20.2%.
It’s worth noticing this result does not reflect the lively behavior of loans,
that grew 6.2% QoQ and 26.9% YoY, thus remaining on the upward trend of recent
years. Consequently, loan portfolio also increased its share of total interest
earning assets to 62% compared to 59% in the preceding quarter.
Additionally,
quarterly results are the consequence of the portfolio’s restructuring towards
more available funds, principally in 3Q08 after BCR increased the legal reserve
rates (which they again reduced towards year-end) and our policy to maintain
more liquid instruments, a measure taken as a precaution against the spreading
international crisis.
Thus,
deposits at BCRP and other banks fell 10.0% QoQ, but rose 27.5% YoY, similarly
to interbank funds, which dropped 74.8% QoQ after a substantial increase in the
third quarter, as we moved away from more expensive interbank
lending.
Investments
available for sale slipped a slight 3.0% in the last quarter. The position in
Central Bank CD’s reduced while sovereign and global bonds increased betting on
a capital appreciation in those instruments. This phenomenon was a consequence
of higher interest rates driven by a deepening crisis that motivated investors
to flight to quality, subsequently subject to correction. Also noteworthy is the
greater share of repurchase options and the increase in the US dollars position
within our investment portfolio as a natural hedge towards the elimination of
exchange rate volatility risk.
Moreover,
trading securities recovered slightly during this quarter by 11.1%. However, in
yearly-adjusted terms, they were hammered by the market’s intense volatility and
dropped 64.7% YoY.
Loan
portfolio
BCP’s
loan portfolio remained on their upward trend, with growth of 6.2% QoQ and 27%
annually, to a total US$10,444.7 million at the end of December 2008. A review
of daily average balances for 4Q08, which better reflect actual loan levels,
shows 5.7% growth QoQ and 28.3% YoY.
In line
with annual trends, the Bank’s business segments also grew in the last quarter,
Corporate Banking was the most active with an expansion of 11.6% QoQ followed by
Retail Banking at 3.5% QoQ and Middle Market Banking with 1.3% QoQ.
Corporate
Banking reached a daily average loan balance of US$3,761 million, its second
largest quarterly growth rate in 2008. Annually, this business grew 32.5% YoY,
driven by dynamic domestic demand, which still fuels corporate growth in Peru.
It is also worthwhile underscoring BCP’s growth in a business where our bank is
a strong market leader.
Middle
Market Banking revealed a daily average portfolio of US$2,202.2 million, with a
less flashy performance of 1.3% increase QoQ, below 3Q08’s rise that represented
an extraordinary growth period. Annual growth reached 26.8%.
Retail
Banking grew 3.5% QoQ and 30.0% YoY, to a total daily average balance in 4Q08 of
US$3,636.7 million. Within this segment, the star performer was SME loans that
revealed the largest growth, at 5.1% QoQ and 35.7% YoY, closely followed by
consumer segment, with 5% QoQ and 53.7% YoY growth. Mortgages expanded 2.5% QoQ
and 19.1% YoY, while credit cards remained static at -0.2% QoQ and registered an
annual growth of 18.9%. Although credit cards daily average balances grew in
domestic and foreign currency denominations, the strong depreciation of the
Nuevo Sol against the US dollar in the last quarter prevents this result from
being appreciated in the aggregate as positions are expressed in US
dollars.
The below
loan’s quarterly evolution by currency reveals the stronger growth of domestic
currency loans:
|
|
Domestic Currency Loans
|
|
|
Foreign Currency Loans
|
|
|
|
(Nuevos Soles million)
|
|
|
(US$ million)
|
|
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
YoY
|
|
|
QoQ
|
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
YoY
|
|
|
QoQ
|
|
Corporate
|
|
|
2,506.5 |
|
|
|
2,575.3 |
|
|
|
2,998.8 |
|
|
|
19.6 |
% |
|
|
16.4 |
% |
|
|
2,002.7 |
|
|
|
2,487.4 |
|
|
|
2,796.4 |
|
|
|
39.6 |
% |
|
|
12.4 |
% |
Middle
Market
|
|
|
890.7 |
|
|
|
1,177.7 |
|
|
|
1,257.4 |
|
|
|
41.2 |
% |
|
|
6.8 |
% |
|
|
1,439.5 |
|
|
|
1,769.7 |
|
|
|
1,797.7 |
|
|
|
24.9 |
% |
|
|
1.6 |
% |
Retail
|
|
|
3,555.7 |
|
|
|
5,020.1 |
|
|
|
5,612.2 |
|
|
|
57.8 |
% |
|
|
11.8 |
% |
|
|
1,610.6 |
|
|
|
1,790.9 |
|
|
|
1,831.1 |
|
|
|
13.7 |
% |
|
|
2.2 |
% |
SME
|
|
|
1,271.0 |
|
|
|
1,703.7 |
|
|
|
1,955.4 |
|
|
|
53.9 |
% |
|
|
14.8 |
% |
|
|
476.7 |
|
|
|
578.8 |
|
|
|
593.5 |
|
|
|
24.5 |
% |
|
|
2.5 |
% |
Mortgages
|
|
|
735.5 |
|
|
|
1,180.9 |
|
|
|
1,306.9 |
|
|
|
77.7 |
% |
|
|
10.7 |
% |
|
|
866.5 |
|
|
|
887.0 |
|
|
|
903.6 |
|
|
|
4.3 |
% |
|
|
1.9 |
% |
Consumer
|
|
|
722.3 |
|
|
|
1,171.6 |
|
|
|
1,331.4 |
|
|
|
84.3 |
% |
|
|
13.6 |
% |
|
|
212.6 |
|
|
|
262.1 |
|
|
|
268.7 |
|
|
|
26.4 |
% |
|
|
2.5 |
% |
Credit
Cards
|
|
|
826.9 |
|
|
|
963.9 |
|
|
|
1,018.4 |
|
|
|
23.2 |
% |
|
|
5.7 |
% |
|
|
54.8 |
|
|
|
63.1 |
|
|
|
65.3 |
|
|
|
19.2 |
% |
|
|
3.5 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consolidated
total loans*
|
|
|
6,979.6 |
|
|
|
8,804.4 |
|
|
|
9,905.1 |
|
|
|
41.9 |
% |
|
|
12.5 |
% |
|
|
5,625.5 |
|
|
|
6,627.4 |
|
|
|
7,015.7 |
|
|
|
24.7 |
% |
|
|
5.9 |
% |
*
Includes work out unit, other banking and BCP Bolivia
|
·
|
Corporate
Banking loans in US dollars, accounting for 74% of this segment’s total,
grew 12.4% QoQ, while loans in domestic currency expanded 16.4% QoQ. Both
increases are the largest quarterly changes in this segment during
2008.
|
|
·
|
The
Middle Market Banking portfolio, where 82% of loans are foreign- currency
denominated, increased 1.6% QoQ in US dollars while growth in Nuevos Soles
loans was 6.8% QoQ.
|
|
·
|
Retail
Banking is more diversified, with loans split roughly equally between
local and foreign currency. Balances in domestic currency grew 11.8% QoQ
while US dollar loans increased a moderate 2.2%. This evolution is in line
with criteria for foreign exchange risk control of our clients applied
during the credit analysis process.
|
|
|
2006
|
|
|
2007
|
|
|
2008
|
|
|
|
2008/2007
|
|
|
|
2007/2006
|
|
Corporate
|
|
|
1,805.2 |
|
|
|
2,400.7 |
|
|
|
3,375.5 |
|
|
|
40.6 |
% |
|
|
33.0 |
% |
Middle
Market
|
|
|
1,171.1 |
|
|
|
1,577.7 |
|
|
|
2,054.6 |
|
|
|
30.2 |
% |
|
|
34.7 |
% |
Retail
|
|
|
1,710.6 |
|
|
|
2,371.6 |
|
|
|
3,390.1 |
|
|
|
42.9 |
% |
|
|
38.6 |
% |
-
SME
|
|
|
508.6 |
|
|
|
732.9 |
|
|
|
1,127.4 |
|
|
|
53.8 |
% |
|
|
44.1 |
% |
-
Mortgages
|
|
|
803.4 |
|
|
|
995.3 |
|
|
|
1,260.4 |
|
|
|
26.6 |
% |
|
|
23.9 |
% |
-
Consumer
|
|
|
199.7 |
|
|
|
360.2 |
|
|
|
617.9 |
|
|
|
71.5 |
% |
|
|
80.4 |
% |
-
Credit Cards
|
|
|
198.9 |
|
|
|
283.3 |
|
|
|
384.4 |
|
|
|
35.7 |
% |
|
|
42.4 |
% |
Total
*
|
|
|
5,317.6 |
|
|
|
6,939.7 |
|
|
|
9,405.4 |
|
|
|
35.5 |
% |
|
|
30.5 |
% |
*
Includes work out units, other banking and BCP Bolivia
Finally,
portfolio growth in annual terms is worth underscoring. Global growth of loans
measured in daily average balances through the year reached 35.5%, to a total
US$9,405.4 million at year-end.
Among
banking segments, Retail Banking was the star performer (up to 42.9%), followed
by Corporate and Middle Market Banking which grew 40.6% and 30.2%,
respectively.
Market
Share
BCP’s
loan market share remains strong despite strong competition and the Bank’s
already large share. To December 2008, BCP’s share reached 31.6% strengthening
its condition as the market leader. Moreover, this share is slightly higher than
its 31.5% market share reported last September.
Corporate
and Middle Market Banking’s market shares also reflect BCP’s strong leadership,
at 47% and 34%, respectively, based on November figures.
BCP’s
shares also grew in the Retail Banking segment according to our strategy. Market
share in consumer or personal loans grew 30 bps to 17.3%. BCP’s share in
mortgages reached 39.7%, 70 bps higher than that reported for 3Q08, while it
increased its share in the highly competitive credit card segment, hitting 18.8%
share. SME loans, however, dropped slightly to 18.8%.
Dollarization
Asset
dollarization expanded from 57.0% in 3Q08 to 65.9% in 4Q08. This change in asset
structure is largely a consequence of the increase in marketable securities in
foreign currency taken as a precaution against exchange risk
exposure.
Loans in
US dollars fell slightly from 67.1% to 66.2% in 4Q08. They also dropped YoY when
compared to 67.8% of 4Q07:
II.2
Deposits and Mutual Funds
BCP
deposits grew 5.4% QoQ and 25.0% YoY, thus remaining as the Bank’s main funding
source for growing lending. Mutual funds totalled 45.2% market share, down from
the previous quarter’s 47.5%.
Deposits and Obligations
|
|
Quarter ended
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ (000)
|
|
4Q08
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
|
4Q08/4Q07
|
|
|
4Q08/3Q08
|
|
Non-interest
bearing deposits
|
|
|
4,260,406 |
|
|
|
2,874,202 |
|
|
|
2,729,860 |
|
|
|
56.1 |
% |
|
|
48.2 |
% |
Demand
deposits
|
|
|
1,630,976 |
|
|
|
962,343 |
|
|
|
926,817 |
|
|
|
76.0 |
% |
|
|
69.5 |
% |
Saving
deposits
|
|
|
2,968,842 |
|
|
|
2,748,290 |
|
|
|
2,381,012 |
|
|
|
24.7 |
% |
|
|
8.0 |
% |
Time
deposits
|
|
|
4,090,043 |
|
|
|
5,754,903 |
|
|
|
4,268,233 |
|
|
|
-4.2 |
% |
|
|
-28.9 |
% |
Severance
indemnity deposits (CTS)
|
|
|
1,039,887 |
|
|
|
928,891 |
|
|
|
896,283 |
|
|
|
16.0 |
% |
|
|
11.9 |
% |
Interest
payable
|
|
|
73,566 |
|
|
|
71,776 |
|
|
|
46,899 |
|
|
|
56.9 |
% |
|
|
2.5 |
% |
Total
customer deposits
|
|
|
14,063,720 |
|
|
|
13,340,405 |
|
|
|
11,249,104 |
|
|
|
25.0 |
% |
|
|
5.4 |
% |
Mutual
funds in Perú
|
|
|
1,273,566,403 |
|
|
|
2,010,590,470 |
|
|
|
1,955,547,404 |
|
|
|
-34.87 |
% |
|
|
-36.7 |
% |
Mutual
funds in Bolivia
|
|
|
109,834 |
|
|
|
100,141 |
|
|
|
65,739 |
|
|
|
67.1 |
% |
|
|
9.7 |
% |
Total
customer funds
|
|
|
14,063,720 |
|
|
|
13,340,405 |
|
|
|
11,249,104 |
|
|
|
25.0 |
% |
|
|
5.4 |
% |
Other BCP
funding sources, including debt with banks and correspondents, dropped a
significant 33.7% since the previous quarter. This evolution resulted from
repayment of expensive short term debt, using the Bank’s foreign currency
liquidity. However, it is worthwhile underscoring 75% of BCP’s funding comes
from deposits, while only 7% of funding is financed through short term
international bank lines.
In 4Q08,
deposits were rearranged as a result of greater need of liquidity from customers
and migration from mutual funds to bank deposits. Demand deposits increased a
significant 69.5%. This shift benefited BCP as these deposits are a low cost
funding source, and 71% of these deposits yield low or no interest at all.
Likewise, severance payments accounts (CTS is the Spanish acronym) and saving
deposits rose 11.9% and 8.0% QoQ, respectively. Time deposits fell 28.9%,
responding to clients’ perception of low availability.
It’s
worth noticing that such time deposits include deposits from the remittances
securitization program totaling US$1,180 million to December 2008 undertaken by
CCR Inc., a Credicorp subsidiary.
Market
Share
A
deepening international financial crisis in the last quarter featured high
market volatility and stable capital markets, and funds’ flight to bank
deposits. BCP’s deposit market share to December 2008 reached 38.5%, slightly
below December 2007’s 38.8%.
The
following chart shows the Bank’s market share by type of deposit by
currency:
|
|
Market share (%)
|
|
Deposit
|
|
Domestic currency
|
|
|
Foreign currency
|
|
Demand
Deposits
|
|
|
44.30 |
% |
|
|
47.10 |
% |
Saving
Deposits
|
|
|
36.50 |
% |
|
|
42.50 |
% |
Time
Deposits
|
|
|
27.60 |
% |
|
|
40.30 |
% |
Severance
Indemnity
|
|
|
40.20 |
% |
|
|
56.60 |
% |
BCP’s
leadership is evident in CTS with a 51.9% market share, while the nearest
competitor registers 19.8%. BCP has preserved its market leader position in all
other types of deposits.
Credifondo,
a BCP subsidiary, remained as leader in the mutual fund segment. However, the
value of its fund under management totaled US$1,274 million to December 2008,
reveling a significant decrease of 36.7% QoQ, a consequence of a stringent
international financial crisis. It is important to highlight that at the end of
2008, Credifondo recorded a large 45.2% market share of total wealth under
management and a 38.8% share by number of participants.
Finally,
to December 2008, 38.1% of deposits were denominated in domestic currency while
61.9% were US dollar-denominated, continuing the trend toward de-dollarization
of deposits that started a quarter earlier. This is at least partly explained by
the public’s likely preference to hold deposits in a increasingly stronger US
dollar context, and as hedging against a Nuevo Sol devaluation, which reached
5.5% during the last quarter, above the 0.3% devaluation registered during
3Q08.
II.3 Net
Interest Income
NII
increased 25 bps mostly due to expanding loans that, hand in hand with larger
spreads, led to bigger income from loan interests. It also benefited from
re-composition of deposits toward non-interest bearing deposits and lower
interest demand and savings deposits.
Net interest income
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Interest
income
|
|
|
327,007 |
|
|
|
322,921 |
|
|
|
272,204 |
|
|
|
20.1 |
% |
|
|
1.3 |
% |
Interest
on loans
|
|
|
269,851 |
|
|
|
246,814 |
|
|
|
201,414 |
|
|
|
34.0 |
% |
|
|
9.3 |
% |
Interest
and dividends on investments
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
139 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100 |
|
Interest
on deposits with banks
|
|
|
17,551 |
|
|
|
17,129 |
|
|
|
17,901 |
|
|
|
-2.0 |
% |
|
|
2.5 |
% |
Interest
on trading securities
|
|
|
34,991 |
|
|
|
55,584 |
|
|
|
47,069 |
|
|
|
-25.7 |
% |
|
|
-37.0 |
% |
Other
interest income
|
|
|
4,614 |
|
|
|
3,392 |
|
|
|
5,681 |
|
|
|
-18.8 |
% |
|
|
36.0 |
% |
Interest
expense
|
|
|
137,684 |
|
|
|
144,633 |
|
|
|
116,640 |
|
|
|
18.0 |
% |
|
|
-4.8 |
% |
Interest
on deposits
|
|
|
97,842 |
|
|
|
103,790 |
|
|
|
83,039 |
|
|
|
17.8 |
% |
|
|
-5.7 |
% |
Interest
on borrowed funds
|
|
|
16,816 |
|
|
|
17,400 |
|
|
|
14,670 |
|
|
|
14.6 |
% |
|
|
-3.4 |
% |
Interest
on bonds and subordinated notes
|
|
|
14,386 |
|
|
|
15,019 |
|
|
|
11,782 |
|
|
|
22.1 |
% |
|
|
-4.2 |
% |
Other
interest expense
|
|
|
8,640 |
|
|
|
8,424 |
|
|
|
7,149 |
|
|
|
20.9 |
% |
|
|
2.6 |
% |
Net
interest income
|
|
|
189,323 |
|
|
|
178,288 |
|
|
|
155,564 |
|
|
|
21.7 |
% |
|
|
6.2 |
% |
Average
interest earning assets
|
|
|
16,661,248 |
|
|
|
16,568,839 |
|
|
|
12,966,755 |
|
|
|
28.5 |
% |
|
|
0.6 |
% |
Net
interest margin*
|
|
|
4.55 |
% |
|
|
4.30 |
% |
|
|
4.80 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Annualized
The
banking business remained on the 2008 upward trend as reflected by the 9.3% QoQ
growth of loan interest earnings, the largest quarterly growth rate of the year,
and a slight increase in spreads. Growth reached 34% when compared to the same
quarter in 2007. Smaller interests from securities resulting from the Bank’s
sharp reduction in BCR CD’s that led to lower interest income attenuated the
positive evolution.
Favorable
results in NII are also accounted for lower interest expenses that dropped 4.8%
QoQ linked mainly to deposit re-composition that significantly reduced time
deposits, which pay the highest interest rate, and increased non-interest
bearing deposits and saving accounts, on the other hand. Altogether, interest
paid on deposits dropped 5.7%. Moreover, the results mentioned before were
reinforced by a smaller debt to banks and correspondents that led to lower
interest expenses and a reduction in bonds and subordinated debt, resulting from
smaller issuances in 2008’s last quarter.
A
combination of slight growth of interest income and smaller interest expenses
resulted in a major 6.2% QoQ of net interest income. As a consequence of such
changes, NIIM grew from 4.3% in 3Q08 to 4.6% in 4Q08. Although interest income
revealed 20.1% growth compared to 4Q07, NIIM fell 25 bps after a significant
increase in deposits, which in turn led to a 17.8% increase in interest expenses
on deposits.
Nevertheless,
it’s worthwhile highlighting an evaluation of NII in the loan business that
reveals a strong positive evolution in 4Q08 to 7.5% above 6.9% in 3Q08 and 6.8%
in 4Q08, thus reflecting also better loan spreads.
II.4 Loan
provisions
Net
Provisioning fell 63.5% QoQ due to provision reversion of US$13 from enforcement
of IAS 39 methodology. The portfolio quality index remained at a healthy 0.79%,
slightly above 3Q08’s 0.78%.
Provisión for loan losses
|
|
Quarter ended
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Provisions
|
|
|
(12,903 |
) |
|
|
(24,040 |
) |
|
|
(19,089 |
) |
|
|
-32.4 |
% |
|
|
-46.3 |
% |
Loan
loss recoveries
|
|
|
6,474 |
|
|
|
6,424 |
|
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
|
-19.1 |
% |
|
|
0.8 |
% |
Total
provisions, net of recoveries
|
|
|
(6,428 |
) |
|
|
(17,616 |
) |
|
|
(11,089 |
) |
|
|
-42.0 |
% |
|
|
-63.5 |
% |
Total
loans
|
|
|
10,444,723 |
|
|
|
9,836,170 |
|
|
|
8,224,613 |
|
|
|
27.0 |
% |
|
|
6.2 |
% |
Reserve
for loan losses (RLL)
|
|
|
223,161 |
|
|
|
229,071 |
|
|
|
212,060 |
|
|
|
5.2 |
% |
|
|
-2.6 |
% |
Bcp's
Charge-Off amount
|
|
|
13,160 |
|
|
|
11,929 |
|
|
|
12,034 |
|
|
|
9.36 |
% |
|
|
10.32 |
% |
Past
due loans (PDL)
|
|
|
82,064 |
|
|
|
76,569 |
|
|
|
60,279 |
|
|
|
36.1 |
% |
|
|
7.2 |
% |
PDL/Total
loans
|
|
|
0.79 |
% |
|
|
0.78 |
% |
|
|
0.73 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coverage
|
|
|
271.93 |
% |
|
|
299.17 |
% |
|
|
351.80 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross
loan provisioning reached US$ 25.9 million in 4Q08 but it was reduced by a US$
13 million reversion according to IAS 39. IAS requires provisions for the
difference between the present value of future cash flows and the loan portfolio
value. Hence, if provisioning is higher than required a deduction is made, as
happened in 4Q08. In addition, revenues from recovery of written off loans
remained at last quarter levels.
Past due
loans reached US$ 82.1 million at 4Q08, 7.2% higher than September 2008’s US$
76.6 million, leading to a small increase in the past due indicator, which rose
from 0.78% to 0.79%. Such decline is not an indication of degrading portfolio
quality but a natural consequence of growing business. Reserves for past due
loans fell slightly compared to 3Q08’s (- 2.6%), although they increased 5.2%
YoY.
II.5 Non
Financial Income
Non-financial
revenues grew 24.8% QoQ attributable to earnings from commissions on foreign
currency transactions and sales of securities. BCP profited from the US dollar’s
and the capital market’s volatility to pick earnings from sales of fixed income
and equity securities.
Non financial income
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Fee
income
|
|
|
84,826 |
|
|
|
87,042 |
|
|
|
76,708 |
|
|
|
10.6 |
% |
|
|
-2.5 |
% |
Net
gain on foreign exchange transactions
|
|
|
33,175 |
|
|
|
24,497 |
|
|
|
21,497 |
|
|
|
54.3 |
% |
|
|
35.4 |
% |
Net
gain on sales of securities
|
|
|
15,325 |
|
|
|
(3,128 |
) |
|
|
2,661 |
|
|
|
475.9 |
% |
|
|
-589.9 |
% |
Other
income
|
|
|
8,107 |
|
|
|
4,897 |
|
|
|
2,592 |
|
|
|
212.8 |
% |
|
|
65.6 |
% |
Total
non financial income
|
|
|
141,433 |
|
|
|
113,308 |
|
|
|
103,458 |
|
|
|
36.7 |
% |
|
|
24.8 |
% |
Revenues
from commissions fell 2.5% QoQ, or US$ 2.2 million, mainly due to shrinking
commissions from commercial loans (-63.8%), Corporate Financing (-68.2%) and
Branches and Subsidiaries including Credifondo and Credibolsa, where commissions
fell, after tumbling capital market prices (- 12.3%). The slide was attenuated
by strong commission performance in mortgage loans, credit cards and consumer
loans.
The
monthly average number of commission-earning transactions reached 40.8 million
in 4Q08, 10.3% higher QoQ and 22.4% stronger compared to 4Q07. Such positive
evolution was prompted principally by more ViaBCP web-banking, more frequent use
of the Bank’s ATMs, and operations through its Agentes BCP.
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
N° de Transactions per channel
|
|
Average 4Q08
|
|
|
Average 3Q08
|
|
|
Average 4Q07
|
|
|
|
4Q08/ 4Q07 |
|
|
|
4Q08/ 3Q08 |
|
Teller
|
|
|
10,478,167 |
|
|
|
10,040,941 |
|
|
|
9,383,312 |
|
|
|
11.7 |
% |
|
|
4.4 |
% |
ATMs
Via BCP
|
|
|
7,154,602 |
|
|
|
6,241,016 |
|
|
|
5,540,733 |
|
|
|
29.1 |
% |
|
|
14.6 |
% |
Balance
Inquiries
|
|
|
2,671,103 |
|
|
|
2,386,611 |
|
|
|
2,468,491 |
|
|
|
8.2 |
% |
|
|
11.9 |
% |
Telephone
Banking
|
|
|
1,321,179 |
|
|
|
1,174,645 |
|
|
|
1,178,386 |
|
|
|
12.1 |
% |
|
|
12.5 |
% |
Internet
Banking Via BCP
|
|
|
9,507,673 |
|
|
|
8,598,560 |
|
|
|
7,284,193 |
|
|
|
30.5 |
% |
|
|
10.6 |
% |
Agente
BCP
|
|
|
2,400,437 |
|
|
|
1,942,643 |
|
|
|
1,092,778 |
|
|
|
119.7 |
% |
|
|
23.6 |
% |
Telecrédito
|
|
|
3,816,293 |
|
|
|
3,345,913 |
|
|
|
3,374,932 |
|
|
|
13.1 |
% |
|
|
14.1 |
% |
Direct
Debit
|
|
|
422,867 |
|
|
|
308,098 |
|
|
|
346,710 |
|
|
|
22.0 |
% |
|
|
37.3 |
% |
Points
of Sale P.O.S.
|
|
|
2,785,821 |
|
|
|
2,746,508 |
|
|
|
2,489,588 |
|
|
|
11.9 |
% |
|
|
1.4 |
% |
Other
ATMs network
|
|
|
227,863 |
|
|
|
203,957 |
|
|
|
168,839 |
|
|
|
35.0 |
% |
|
|
11.7 |
% |
Total
transactions
|
|
|
40,786,007 |
|
|
|
36,988,893 |
|
|
|
33,315,920 |
|
|
|
22.4 |
% |
|
|
10.3 |
% |
Shown
below is the evolution of the Bank’s channel networks, where become evident the
strong growth of Agentes BCP. This low cost channel has expanded customer access
to the banking system.
|
|
Balance as of
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
|
|
Dec 08
|
|
|
Sep 08
|
|
|
Dec 07
|
|
|
Dec 08/Dec 07
|
|
|
Dec 08/Sep 08
|
|
Branches
|
|
|
330 |
|
|
|
277 |
|
|
|
273 |
|
|
|
20.9 |
% |
|
|
19.1 |
% |
ATMs
|
|
|
890 |
|
|
|
778 |
|
|
|
748 |
|
|
|
19.0 |
% |
|
|
14.4 |
% |
Agentes
BCP
|
|
|
1,851 |
|
|
|
1,358 |
|
|
|
1,221 |
|
|
|
51.6 |
% |
|
|
36.3 |
% |
Total
|
|
|
3,071 |
|
|
|
2,413 |
|
|
|
2,242 |
|
|
|
37.0 |
% |
|
|
27.3 |
% |
Earnings
from fees on foreign exchange transactions also increased. Quarterly Nuevo Sol
devaluation against the dollar reached 5.5%, significantly higher than last
quarter’s 0.3%. Income these transactions reached US$ 33.2 million, higher than
earnings of US$ 24.5 million and US$ 21.5 million recorded in 3Q08 and 4Q07,
respectively.
Sales of
Securities led to a net US$3.1 million loss last quarter as a consequence of the
international crisis but closed 4Q08 with a net US$15.3 million profit resulting
mainly from sales of sovereign bonds, thereby reverting 3Q08’s results and
leading to earnings above 4Q07’s US$ 12.7 million.
II.6
Operating Costs and Efficiency
Despite
the 6% increase in revenues from operations, the efficiency index deteriorated
slightly, as a result of 16.1% larger operating expenses, and rose above their
52.29% and 56.89% levels of 3Q08 and 4Q07, respectively, to 57.2% in the last
quarter of 2008.
Operating expenses
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Salaries
and employees benefits
|
|
|
88,805 |
|
|
|
83,496 |
|
|
|
75,147 |
|
|
|
18.2 |
% |
|
|
6.4 |
% |
Administrative,
general and tax expenses
|
|
|
74,407 |
|
|
|
56,266 |
|
|
|
59,234 |
|
|
|
25.6 |
% |
|
|
32.2 |
% |
Depreciation
and amortizacion
|
|
|
12,740 |
|
|
|
11,800 |
|
|
|
10,000 |
|
|
|
27.4 |
% |
|
|
8.0 |
% |
Other
expenses
|
|
|
(3,453 |
) |
|
|
11,915 |
|
|
|
7,485 |
|
|
|
-146.1 |
% |
|
|
-129.0 |
% |
Total
operating expenses
|
|
|
172,499 |
|
|
|
163,477 |
|
|
|
151,866 |
|
|
|
13.6 |
% |
|
|
5.5 |
% |
Efficiency
Ratio
|
|
|
57.25 |
% |
|
|
52.29 |
% |
|
|
56.89 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In 4Q08,
operating expenses increased significantly due to larger expenditures in
salaries and administration, which together account for 94.6% of the total. The
6.4% QoQ increase in remunerations resulted from additional profit
sharing-related expenditures; new hiring that increased the number of workers
from 15,379 to 15,971, and training expenditure.
It’s
worthwhile underscoring that fix and variable salaries did not have a
significant impact on this increase. Salaries are denominated in local currency
and after 5.5% quarterly devaluation they reached a level similar to 3Q08’s when
translated into a US dollar-denominated wage.
Administrative
and general expenses rose a significant 32.2% QoQ and 25.6% compared to 4Q07’s
triggered by increases on marketing, computing and consultancies. The largest
marketing related expenses were connected to image, brand and product campaigns,
such as LANPASS, BCP trademark and ABC value campaigns.
System
expenses grew due to renewal and additional Microsoft licenses, software
maintenance, equipment repair and maintenance expenditures, general support and
costs relating to support for system development.
Administrative
expenses and the corresponding quarterly changes are detailed
below:
Administrative Expenses
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ (000)
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
%
|
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
%
|
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
%
|
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/ 3Q08 |
|
Marketing
|
|
|
14,765 |
|
|
|
20 |
% |
|
|
6,260 |
|
|
|
11 |
% |
|
|
12,180 |
|
|
|
21 |
% |
|
|
21.2 |
% |
|
|
135.9 |
% |
Systems
|
|
|
9,749 |
|
|
|
13 |
% |
|
|
5,054 |
|
|
|
9 |
% |
|
|
9,121 |
|
|
|
15 |
% |
|
|
6.9 |
% |
|
|
92.9 |
% |
Transportation
|
|
|
5,476 |
|
|
|
7 |
% |
|
|
5,421 |
|
|
|
10 |
% |
|
|
4,864 |
|
|
|
8 |
% |
|
|
12.6 |
% |
|
|
1.0 |
% |
Consulting
|
|
|
5,172 |
|
|
|
7 |
% |
|
|
3,169 |
|
|
|
6 |
% |
|
|
3,174 |
|
|
|
5 |
% |
|
|
62.9 |
% |
|
|
63.2 |
% |
Maintenance
|
|
|
3,415 |
|
|
|
5 |
% |
|
|
2,403 |
|
|
|
4 |
% |
|
|
2,319 |
|
|
|
4 |
% |
|
|
47.3 |
% |
|
|
42.1 |
% |
Communications
|
|
|
3,139 |
|
|
|
4 |
% |
|
|
2,843 |
|
|
|
5 |
% |
|
|
2,217 |
|
|
|
4 |
% |
|
|
41.6 |
% |
|
|
10.4 |
% |
Other
expenses
|
|
|
20,794 |
|
|
|
28 |
% |
|
|
17,537 |
|
|
|
31 |
% |
|
|
15,632 |
|
|
|
26 |
% |
|
|
33.0 |
% |
|
|
18.6 |
% |
Property
taxes and others
|
|
|
5,129 |
|
|
|
7 |
% |
|
|
5,290 |
|
|
|
9 |
% |
|
|
4,897 |
|
|
|
8 |
% |
|
|
4.7 |
% |
|
|
-3.1 |
% |
Other
subsidiaries and eliminations, net
|
|
|
6,768 |
|
|
|
9 |
% |
|
|
8,287 |
|
|
|
15 |
% |
|
|
4,829 |
|
|
|
8 |
% |
|
|
40.1 |
% |
|
|
-18.3 |
% |
Total
Administrative Expenses
|
|
|
74,407 |
|
|
|
100 |
% |
|
|
56,266 |
|
|
|
100 |
% |
|
|
59,234 |
|
|
|
100 |
% |
|
|
25.6 |
% |
|
|
32.2 |
% |
While
business related expenditures increased fueled by business growth, other
expenditures fell 129% QoQ. This drop is explained by writing down of a
contingency provision made in 2007 in view of the political crisis in Bolivia at
that time that was unnecessary in view of the current situation.
II.7
Shareholders’ Equity and Regulatory Capital
Total
shareholders’ equity totaled US$1.4 billion as at December 2008 or 6.1% QoQ
mainly due to net profits earned in 4Q08 (US$86.6 million). ROAE in 4Q08 reached
25.48%, lower than 3Q08’s 28.93% and 4Q07’s 31.67%. These changes resulted from
the translation effect in quarterly results created by volatility. Nonetheless,
quarterly figures throughout 2008 reflect the high return rates of BCP’s
business.
Shareholders' equity
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ 000
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Capital
stock
|
|
|
439,474 |
|
|
|
439,474 |
|
|
|
364,706 |
|
|
|
20.5 |
% |
|
|
0.0 |
% |
Reserves
|
|
|
388,062 |
|
|
|
388,062 |
|
|
|
282,189 |
|
|
|
37.5 |
% |
|
|
0.0 |
% |
Unrealized
Gains and Losses
|
|
|
34,746 |
|
|
|
43,354 |
|
|
|
57,771 |
|
|
|
-39.9 |
% |
|
|
-19.9 |
% |
Retained
Earnings
|
|
|
114,593 |
|
|
|
111,994 |
|
|
|
96,245 |
|
|
|
19.1 |
% |
|
|
2.3 |
% |
Income
for the year
|
|
|
423,529 |
|
|
|
336,895 |
|
|
|
331,652 |
|
|
|
27.7 |
% |
|
|
25.7 |
% |
Total
shareholders' equity
|
|
|
1,400,404 |
|
|
|
1,319,779 |
|
|
|
1,132,563 |
|
|
|
23.6 |
% |
|
|
6.1 |
% |
Return
on average equity (ROAE)
|
|
|
25.48 |
% |
|
|
28.93 |
% |
|
|
31.67 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
At the
end of December 2008, the capital adequacy ratio for BCP was 11.52% (8.68
times), lower than 3Q08’s 12.25% (8.17 times) but well above the system’s
mandatory minimum (9.1%). Lower ratio results principally from an increase in
risk weighted assets, a natural result of loan growth and, in addition, a
stronger foreign currency (US$) position to prevent the impact of volatility on
translation when International Financial Reporting Standards results are
reported. An increase in capital provisioning was also required as an expanded
foreign currency (US$) position must be reflected as an increased market risk in
Peruvian accounting. At the end of 2008, risk weighted assets were comprised of
US$527.2 million for market risk, for which hedging required US$47.9 million
cash equity.
Furthermore,
profits are withheld for capitalization in a effort to further strength BCP’s
cash equity in terms of TIER I. Profits withheld totaled US$229.4 million as at
December 2008, well above last September’s (+70.6%).
At the
end of 2008, Tier I had increased 34.3% YoY to US$1,020 million. This increase
is mainly explained by the increase in earnings earmarked for capitalization.
TIER II reached US$283 million or a slight 3.8% YoY due to smaller subordinated
debt. These changes increased the cash equity to US$1,303 million of which
US$278.7 million are subordinated debt.
Regulatory Capital and Capital Adequancy Ratios
|
|
Balance as of
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ (000)
|
|
Dec-08
|
|
|
Sep-08
|
|
|
Dec-08
|
|
|
Dec 08/
Dec 07
|
|
|
Dec 08/
Sep08
|
|
Capital
Stock, net
|
|
|
480,346 |
|
|
|
506,817 |
|
|
|
429,415 |
|
|
|
11.9 |
% |
|
|
-5.2 |
% |
Legal
and Other capital reserves
|
|
|
423,052 |
|
|
|
446,365 |
|
|
|
346,418 |
|
|
|
22.1 |
% |
|
|
-5.2 |
% |
Net
income capitalized
|
|
|
229,299 |
|
|
|
134,409 |
|
|
|
74,019 |
|
|
|
209.8 |
% |
|
|
70.6 |
% |
Investment
in subsidiaries and others
|
|
|
209,393 |
|
|
|
194,526 |
|
|
|
170,317 |
|
|
|
22.9 |
% |
|
|
7.6 |
% |
Goodwill
|
|
|
8,027 |
|
|
|
8,320 |
|
|
|
5,445 |
|
|
|
47.4 |
% |
|
|
-3.5 |
% |
Generic
Contingency loss reserves
|
|
|
109,207 |
|
|
|
103,338 |
|
|
|
85,005 |
|
|
|
28.5 |
% |
|
|
5.7 |
% |
Subordinated
Debt
|
|
|
278,688 |
|
|
|
289,099 |
|
|
|
294,648 |
|
|
|
-5.4 |
% |
|
|
-3.6 |
% |
Total
Regulatory Capital
|
|
|
1,303,173 |
|
|
|
1,277,183 |
|
|
|
1,053,743 |
|
|
|
23.7 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tier
1 (1)
|
|
|
1,019,974 |
|
|
|
982,008 |
|
|
|
759,249 |
|
|
|
34.3 |
% |
|
|
3.9 |
% |
Tier
2 (2)
|
|
|
283,199 |
|
|
|
295,174 |
|
|
|
294,494 |
|
|
|
-3.8 |
% |
|
|
-4.1 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk-weighted
assets
|
|
|
10,787,723 |
|
|
|
10,277,314 |
|
|
|
8,603,291 |
|
|
|
25.4 |
% |
|
|
5.0 |
% |
Market
risk
|
|
|
47,928 |
|
|
|
13,744 |
|
|
|
26,714 |
|
|
|
79.4 |
% |
|
|
248.7 |
% |
Capital
ratios
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BIS
ratio
|
|
|
11.52 |
% |
|
|
12.25 |
% |
|
|
11.84 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk-weighted
assets / Regulatory Capital
|
|
|
8.68 |
|
|
|
8.17 |
|
|
|
8.44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1)
Tier 1 = Capital + Reserves + Net Income capitalized - Goodwill - (0.5 x
Inverstment in Subsidiaries)
(2)
Tier 2 = Subordinated Debt + Generic Contigency loss reserves - (0.5 x
Investment in subsidiaries)
III.
Banco de Crédito de Bolivia
Bolivian
Financial System
Total
loans in Bolivia bank system grew from US$ 3,035 million in December 2007 to US$
3,566 million in December 2008 or 17.5% up. Loan quality throughout the bank
system has increased slightly compared to 2007. At the end of 2007, PDL/Loans
ratio throughout the system reached 5.6%, fell to 5.2% in June 2008 and finally
dropped to 4.3% in December. In addition, the banking system coverage ratio was
144.3% in December 2008, up from 112.2% a year earlier
Deposits
in the Bolivian banking system grew from US$4,236 million to US$ 5,676 million
QoQ, a 34.0% increase that reflected inflation adjustments and growth in
local-currency denominated deposits. This growth was distributed among demand
deposits (30.0% up), 49.6% larger savings and a 23.3% increase in time deposits
compared to December 2007.
BCP
Bolivia - Results
In 4Q08,
BCP Bolivia net income reached US$13.0 million, which represents an increase of
18.2% QoQ and 34 % YoY, triggered mainly by larger net interest income (3.2% QoQ
and 32.3% YoY) and expanding non-financial revenues (20.1% QoQ and 57.7%
YoY).
A
conservative credit risk management strategy resulted in a PDL/Loans ratio of
2.0% (2.0% in 3Q08 and 1.7% in 4Q07) and a higher coverage ratio of 230.6%
(185.0% in 3Q08 and 240.1% in 4Q07). These indicators show BCP Bolivia is a top
performer in Bolivia’s banking system, where the corresponding ratios reached
4.3 and 144.3%, respectively. BCP Bolivia’s ROAE was 46.1%, lower than September
2008’s 47.5%. However, this still represents a healthy ratio given existing
international market conditions.
Assets
and liabilities
Total
loans as at December 2008 reached US$ 477.5 million or 4.5%, lower than the US$
499.8 million for September 2008 and 3.0% higher YoY. The decrease QoQ is a
consequence of risk expectations for the next year’s economy performance, i.e.
slower GDP despite slower CPI growth compared to the beginning of 2008. In
addition, the changing international economic and financial scenario has hurt
expectations about the US dollar’s strength and future exchange policies, all of
which will also be reflected in trends evidenced by local currency denominated
loans.
This
quarter, Retail Banking grew 2.3% QoQ and 24.3% YoY, with important effects on
the bank ‘s results as this segment accounts for 52.2% of the entire portfolio
and registers the largest spreads. Corporate and Middle Market Banking account
for 42.9% of portfolio and show smaller returns that retail
banking.
The star
performers in terms of growth within the Retail Banking products were Individual
Cash Loans (56.1% increase QoQ) and PYME loans (+42.7% QoQ). Together, they
account for 33.3% of the retail portfolio. Mortgage loans, accounting for 47.0%
of this portfolio, grew 0.4% QoQ and 3.2% YoY.
On the
liabilities side, BCP Bolivia experienced 1.4% QoQ drop but a 16.3% YoY increase
in deposits. Growing savings deposits 5.6% QoQ and 33.7% YoY), followed by also
larger time deposits (2.0% QoQ and 8.8% YoY) as well as demand deposits (-11.2%
QoQ and 2.4% up YoY) are worth underscoring.
Net
shareholders’ equity grew 10.5% QoQ due to larger profits (41.3% YoY) for this
quarter, partially mitigated by lower non-realized earnings (-99.5% QoQ).
Likewise, our net shareholders equity expanded 27.5% YoY.
Finally,
BCP Bolivia held a 13.1% market share of the loans market and 13.3% in deposits
ranking our bank third for loan and deposits in the entire Bolivian banking
system. BCP Bolivia continues to strengthen its position in the strategic
products and services by including innovative products and creating a reputation
as the bank with the safest transactions. BCP Bolivia has continued expanding
its BCP Agents to increase market penetration in customer segments not yet
served by the bank system. To December 2008, BCP operated through 92 BCP
Agents.
Banco de Crédito de Bolivia
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
US$ million
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08 |
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08 / 4Q07 |
|
|
4Q08/3Q08 |
|
Total
Loans
|
|
|
477.5 |
|
|
|
499.8 |
|
|
|
463.8 |
|
|
|
3.0 |
% |
|
|
-4.5 |
% |
Past
due loans
|
|
|
9.2 |
|
|
|
9.9 |
|
|
|
7.8 |
|
|
|
17.9 |
% |
|
|
-7.1 |
% |
Loan
loss reserves
|
|
|
(20.8 |
) |
|
|
(18.4 |
) |
|
|
(18.6 |
) |
|
|
11.8 |
% |
|
|
13.0 |
% |
Total
Assets
|
|
|
939.7 |
|
|
|
956.0 |
|
|
|
821.9 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
% |
|
|
-1.7 |
% |
Deposits
|
|
|
771.9 |
|
|
|
782.7 |
|
|
|
663.9 |
|
|
|
16.3 |
% |
|
|
-1.4 |
% |
Shareholders
net equity
|
|
|
108.2 |
|
|
|
97.9 |
|
|
|
85.1 |
|
|
|
27.1 |
% |
|
|
10.5 |
% |
Net
Income
|
|
|
13.0 |
|
|
|
11.0 |
|
|
|
9.7 |
|
|
|
34.0 |
% |
|
|
18.2 |
% |
PDL/Total
loans
|
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
2.0 |
% |
|
|
1.7 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coverage
ratio of PDLs
|
|
|
230.6 |
% |
|
|
185.0 |
% |
|
|
240.1 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ROAE
|
|
|
46.1 |
% |
|
|
47.5 |
% |
|
|
37.2 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Branches
|
|
|
64 |
|
|
|
63 |
|
|
|
61 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATMs
|
|
|
182 |
|
|
|
181 |
|
|
|
157 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Employees
|
|
|
1,585 |
|
|
|
1,553 |
|
|
|
1,337 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IV.
Atlantic Security Holding Corporation
From all
of the Credicorp subsidiaries, ASHC received the strongest embattlement from the
financial crisis. This quarter, not only a large impairment of securities
affected by the market meltdown was recorded, but also a potential losses and
contingencies related to the alleged Madoff fraud had to be
reported.
Atlantic
US Blue Chip Fund (AUSBCF) one of the funds managed on behalf of our customers
went insolvent as a result of the collapse of Madoff Securities. Confronted by
this alleged fraud, the company decided to constitute provisions for US$ 43.5
anticipating losses in its proprietary positions as well as any other potential
contingencies arising from such event.
Total
Core Revenues for 4QT08 reported US$7.3 million, reporting a decrease of 9.6%
QoQ and 10.3% YoY. This decrease in core revenues is concentrated in
the 7.2% QoQ drop of net interest income. On a YoY comparison, NII was still
18.2% higher.
The
quarterly drop in net interest income is the result of changes in the structure
of interest earning assets and its associated market yields; these changes
corresponds to the slowdown of investment acquisition transactions and the
retention of available cash generated by maturities and interest income from
investment portfolio with the sole objective of maintaining the company with
high levels of liquidity. This liquidity-based strategy resulted in
less interest income in relation to prior quarters.
ASHC
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
(US$ Million)
|
|
|
4Q08
|
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
|
|
4Q08 / 4Q07
|
|
|
|
4Q08 / 3Q08
|
|
Net
interest income
|
|
|
5.8 |
|
|
|
6.3 |
|
|
|
4.9 |
|
|
|
18.2 |
|
|
|
-7.2 |
|
Dividend
income
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
-32.2 |
|
|
|
838.4 |
|
Fees
and commissions from services
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
2.2 |
|
|
|
2.2 |
|
|
|
-9.8 |
|
|
|
-10.6 |
|
Net
gains on foreign exchange transactions
|
|
|
-0.6 |
|
|
|
-0.4 |
|
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
|
-174.4 |
|
|
|
-59.0 |
|
Core
Revenues
|
|
|
7.3 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
|
|
8.2 |
|
|
|
-10.3 |
|
|
|
-9.6 |
|
Impairment
provisions, net of recoveries
|
|
|
-26.0 |
|
|
|
-5.7 |
|
|
|
-3.1 |
|
|
|
-749.8 |
|
|
|
-354.0 |
|
Provision
Atlantic Blue Chip Fund and proprietary exposure
|
|
|
-43.5 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
100.0
|
|
|
100.0
|
|
Net
gains from sale of securities
|
|
|
3.4 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
|
41.6 |
|
|
|
128.6 |
|
Other
income
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
|
0.4 |
|
|
|
227.7 |
|
|
|
-44.8 |
|
Operating
expenses
|
|
|
-2.0 |
|
|
|
-2.1 |
|
|
|
-2.9 |
|
|
|
-30.3 |
|
|
|
-5.0 |
|
Net
income
|
|
|
-59.4 |
|
|
|
4.2 |
|
|
|
5.0 |
|
|
|
-1,291.8 |
|
|
|
-1,513.7 |
|
Net
income/share
|
|
|
-0.7 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
-1,027.1 |
|
|
|
-1,199.7 |
|
Total
loans
|
|
|
201.4 |
|
|
|
151.6 |
|
|
|
130.1 |
|
|
|
54.8 |
|
|
|
32.8 |
|
Total
investments available for sale
|
|
|
575.6 |
|
|
|
671.8 |
|
|
|
853.7 |
|
|
|
-32.6 |
|
|
|
-14.3 |
|
Total
asset
|
|
|
1,454.2 |
|
|
|
1,325.5 |
|
|
|
1,615.3 |
|
|
|
-10.0 |
|
|
|
9.7 |
|
Total
deposits
|
|
|
1,270.2 |
|
|
|
1,131.1 |
|
|
|
1,382.9 |
|
|
|
-8.1 |
|
|
|
12.3 |
|
Shareholder's
equity
|
|
|
115.7 |
|
|
|
180.0 |
|
|
|
214.1 |
|
|
|
-46.0 |
|
|
|
-35.7 |
|
Net
interest margin
|
|
|
1.82 |
% |
|
|
2.06 |
% |
|
|
1.34 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Efficiency
ratio
|
|
|
16.8 |
% |
|
|
17.7 |
% |
|
|
26.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Return
on average equity
|
|
|
-160.8 |
% |
|
|
8.9 |
% |
|
|
9.4 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PDL
/ Total loans
|
|
|
0.00 |
|
|
|
0.00 |
|
|
|
0.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cover
ratio
|
|
|
0.6 |
% |
|
|
0.9 |
% |
|
|
1.0 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BIS
ratio
|
|
|
14.11 |
% |
|
|
16.84 |
% |
|
|
15.07 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Commissions
and fees income reports US$ 2 million representing a decrease of -10.6% when
compared with 3QT08 results of US$ 2.2 million and -10% when compared with the
figure of the same quarter 2007. These item reports lower volumes on
a quarterly and yearly basis due to lower incentive and management fees charged
to customers through asset management products, as a direct result of dropdowns
on performance yields and net asset value of managed funds which are the base
for determination of such commissions and fees.
Foreign
exchange operations reports a US$ 0.6 million loss which represents an increase
of 59% when compared 3Q08 figures. This loss arises from the
un-hedged positions in euros, currency that has presented significant
devaluation against the US dollar during this quarter.
As stated
before, results of ASHC were however also strongly affected by the high level of
provisions reported in 4Q08 which reached US$ 35.7 million, associated with the
impairment of available-for-sale investments. As reported in previous
quarters, reserves were constituted to confront possible losses related to
credit exposure of issuers. Not withstanding, during this 4Q the financial
crisis reached its most critical peak of the year, affecting the liquidity of
financial markets and generating a generalized meltdown in the prices of
securities.
The
investment portfolio maintains a significant concentration of 79% on “safe”
investment grade securities. Maintaining this structure through the
year confirms the investment strategy of the company which is based on
generating earnings through yields, rather than making profits through the
trading of securities. Based on this fact, we expect important
reserve recoveries as the market corrections begin.
On the
other hand, a conservative decision to realize gains in some positions resulted
in earnings of US$ 6.0 millions from the sale of securities, outperforming
results in the compared quarters.
Efficiency
ratio reported a decrease from 17.7% in 3Q08 to 13.8% in this
4Q08. The improvement is due to profits generated from realized gains
and an unchanged level of operating expenses.
Bottom
line losses reflect the worst quarter for ASHC and absorb most of the impact on
Credicorp from the strongest financial crisis in decades. Total loss contributed
to Credicorp amounts to US$56 million for the 4Q08, and results in a loss
contribution for the year 2008 of US$ 50.4 million.
Asset
levels increased by 9.7% QoQ, and decreased 10.0% YoY. This higher
asset levels is a result of the increase in available cash, generated by the
maturities of investments, migration from customers’ off-balance products to
traditional deposits and the reinforcement of shareholders’ equity through the
direct capitalization received in this quarter.
The
capitalization was executed through the issuance of common stock for US$ 20.0
million and a long-term subordinated debt agreement for US$ 15.0
million.
ASHC
|
|
|
|
(US$ Million)
|
|
2008
|
|
|
2007
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
Net
interest income
|
|
|
24.1 |
|
|
|
18.7 |
|
|
|
28.7 |
|
Dividend
income
|
|
|
22.4 |
|
|
|
19.6 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
Fees
and commissions from services
|
|
|
8.5 |
|
|
|
9.2 |
|
|
|
-7.7 |
|
Net
gains on foreign exchange transactions
|
|
|
-0.3 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
-115.8 |
|
Core
Revenues
|
|
|
54.6 |
|
|
|
49.5 |
|
|
|
10.3 |
|
Impairment
provisions, net of recoveries
|
|
|
-35.4 |
|
|
|
-5.3 |
|
|
|
-567.6 |
|
Provision
Atlantic Blue Chip Fund and proprietary exposure
|
|
|
-43.5 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
|
Net
gains from sale of securities
|
|
|
5.6 |
|
|
|
2.6 |
|
|
|
118.1 |
|
Other
income
|
|
|
4.7 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
127.2 |
|
Operating
expenses
|
|
|
-8.4 |
|
|
|
-9.3 |
|
|
|
9.4 |
|
Net
income
|
|
|
-22.4 |
|
|
|
39.5 |
|
|
|
-156.7 |
|
Contribution
to Credicorp (After Consolidation Adjustments)
|
|
|
-50.4 |
|
|
|
20.5 |
|
|
|
-345.9 |
|
Interest
Earning Assets
Interest
earning assets reached US$ 1,332 million, as shown in the table
below. This figure increased 11.0% QoQ, while a YoY drop of 9.9% was
observed. The quarterly increase is the result of a 38.4% increase in
available cash balances and a 32.8% increase in credit operations on this
quarter. These increases compensate the reported decrease of 12.8% in
the investment portfolio, reduced by the maturities and market value loss during
this quarter.
The share
of investment-grade securities in the investment portfolio is 79%, emphasizing
ASB’s prudent investment policy of concentrating its portfolio in high credit
quality investments. Although the size of the portfolio reveals a
reducing trend, its composition has not changed significantly in the last
year.
INTEREST EARNING ASSETS*
|
|
Quarter
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
(US$ Million)
|
|
|
4Q 2008
|
|
|
|
3Q 2008
|
|
|
|
4Q 2007
|
|
|
|
4Q08 / 4Q07
|
|
|
|
4Q08 / 3Q08
|
|
Due
from banks
|
|
|
584 |
|
|
|
422 |
|
|
|
548 |
|
|
|
6.6 |
% |
|
|
38.4 |
% |
Loans
|
|
|
201 |
|
|
|
152 |
|
|
|
130 |
|
|
|
54.8 |
% |
|
|
32.8 |
% |
Investments
|
|
|
546 |
|
|
|
626 |
|
|
|
799 |
|
|
|
-31.7 |
% |
|
|
-12.8 |
% |
Total
interest-earning assets
|
|
|
1,332 |
|
|
|
1,200 |
|
|
|
1,478 |
|
|
|
-9.9 |
% |
|
|
11.0 |
% |
(*)
Excludes investments in equities and mutual funds.
Asset
Management Business
The asset
management business includes, besides third party managed funds, customers’
deposits, mutual funds and proprietary investments held for custody. The total
of these funds has decreased by 13.0% QoQ and 19.0% YoY.
This
decrease is a result of a general drop on market value of managed funds and
securities in custody on behalf of customers, which is also in line with the
reported loss of value of the available for sale investments
portfolio. In addition to this market value loss, many of our
customers have opted out in favor of safe investments such as traditional time
deposits, causing a migration to these banking products.
During
this 4Q08, the collapse of Madoff Securities LLC had a negative effect in our
asset management business through the failure of one of the feeder funds of the
above company, which at the same time was the sole asset of one of our managed
funds (AUSBCF). The collapse of this fund originated a decrease in
this item of approximately US$ 110 millions represented by the Net Asset Value
(NAV) of our fund in which our customers were investors. Customers’
contributions to this fund were approximately US$ 65.9 millions at the close of
4QT08.
V.
Prima AFP
V1.
Recent evolution of the private pension fund market
Increasingly
weaker international financial markets at the beginning of the last quarter led
to a sharp fall in managed funds. In November and December markets rebounded
slightly while the local currency slipped. As a consequence, at the end of the
last quarter, the system’s total funds under administration dropped 11.6%
compared to the previous quarter, from US$ 17.9 billion in September 2008 to
US$15.8 billion in December.
Transactions
in the private pension market also slowed down in the fourth quarter. Membership
transfers dropped from 67,000 total to 60,000, quarter over quarter, while new
affiliations dropped from 59,000 to 46,000 in the same period. By December-end,
the system’s total membership reached 4.3 million.
System
revenues in the fourth quarter reached US$57.4 million, or 11.8% more YoY.
Larger revenues result from a larger contribution’s payroll created by a
livelier economy and formal job market.
System-wide
operational expenses reached US$43.2 million, with earning from operations
totaling US$14.3 million, or 91.5% more than the earnings from operations year
over year. Despite the AFPs strong operations bottom line, local accounting
guidelines require posting losses in reserves created by sliding international
financial markets. (Losses from legal provisioning reached US$16.1 million in
this period.) After accounting for other revenues and expenses, and provisioning
for taxes and profit sharing, AFPs posted a fourth quarter US$7.7 million net
loss.
Private
Pension Fund System: Main Indicators
At the end of the period:
|
|
|
4Q08
|
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
Affiliates
(thousand)
|
|
|
4,296 |
|
|
|
4,260 |
|
|
|
4,101 |
|
%
Change (1)
|
|
|
0.8 |
% |
|
|
1.2 |
% |
|
|
1.3 |
% |
Sales
force
|
|
|
1,763 |
|
|
|
1,942 |
|
|
|
2,340 |
|
Asset
under management (US$ mm)
|
|
|
15,875 |
|
|
|
17,969 |
|
|
|
20,371 |
|
%
Change (1)
|
|
|
-11.7 |
% |
|
|
-15.6 |
% |
|
|
0.4 |
% |
Income
(US$ mm)
|
|
|
57.4 |
|
|
|
69.9 |
|
|
|
51.4 |
|
Operating
Expenses (US$ mm)
|
|
|
43.2 |
|
|
|
46.2 |
|
|
|
43.9 |
|
Operating
income (US$ mm)
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
|
|
23.8 |
|
|
|
7.4 |
|
Net
Income (US$ mm)
|
|
|
-7.7 |
|
|
|
-16.2 |
|
|
|
(0.5 |
) |
Source: Conasev,
SBS:
(1)
Quarter Variation
(2)
The third quarter includes double collection
(3)
In local Peruvian accounting, legal reserves are included in the income
statement as opposed to the IFRS
There
is no infomation for results adjusted to international financial reporting
standards for the Total System.
V2. Prima
AFP
Despite
the severe financial crisis and the impact of sliding securities markets
worldwide on asset management businesses, and reported portfolios losses, Prima
reported satisfactory earnings and effective sales and administrative cost
reductions aimed at enhancing efficiencies. Revenues and earnings from
operations in the fourth quarter reached a net US$1.4 million, for a total 2008
accumulated earnings reaching US$11.2 million, well above last year’s US$3
million.
PRIMA AFP: Main quarterly
indicators and market share
|
|
PRIMA 4Q08
|
|
|
System 4Q08
|
|
|
Share 4Q08 %
|
|
|
PRIMA 3Q08
|
|
|
System 3Q08
|
|
|
Share 4Q08 %
|
|
Affiliates
(1)
|
|
|
1,045,410 |
|
|
|
4,296,480 |
|
|
|
24.3 |
% |
|
|
1,040,568 |
|
|
|
4,259,889 |
|
|
|
24.4 |
% |
New
affiliations (2)
|
|
|
9,538 |
|
|
|
45,959 |
|
|
|
20.8 |
% |
|
|
11,575 |
|
|
|
59,436 |
|
|
|
19.5 |
% |
Fund
under management US$ mm (1)
|
|
|
4,862 |
|
|
|
15,875 |
|
|
|
30.6 |
% |
|
|
5,588 |
|
|
|
17,969 |
|
|
|
31.1 |
% |
Collections
US$ mm (3)
|
|
|
119 |
|
|
|
366 |
|
|
|
32.4 |
% |
|
|
146 |
|
|
|
445 |
|
|
|
32.9 |
% |
Voluntary Contributions US$ mm (4)
|
|
|
62 |
|
|
|
137 |
|
|
|
45.3 |
% |
|
|
91 |
|
|
|
199 |
|
|
|
45.7 |
% |
RAM
US$ mm (5)
|
|
|
344 |
|
|
|
1,063 |
|
|
|
32.3 |
% |
|
|
344 |
|
|
|
1,061 |
|
|
|
32.4 |
% |
Source:
Superintencia de Banca y Seguros
(1)
Accumulated to the Quarter
(2)
Available information as of november 2008
(3)
Available information as of november. Prima's estimates
Monthly
remuneration retained, earnings base calculation estimated by PRIMA on average
earning during the last 4 months excluding double collection effect, special
collections and voluntary contributions fees.
Commercial
results
New and
transfer members in the fourth quarter numbered 21,700 (12,200 transfers and
9,500 new affiliations), less than in the previous quarter. This lower number of
commercial transactions was evident not just at Prima but also throughout the
system, reflecting a shrinking sales force. Outbound transfers slowed down in
the previous quarter though within the company’s forecast range. RAM net results
were satisfactory during this quarter.
PRIMA
recorded the system’s highest collection rate (32.3%) and the largest share of
voluntary contributions to the system’s voluntary funds to November
(45.3%).
PRIMA’s
funds under management reached US$ 4,862 million or 30.6% of the system’s fund
to December 2008. This market share indicator slipped slightly in the second
half, as weaker financial markets hurt mostly Fund 3, where PRIMA has the
largest market share.
Investments
Hurting
international financial systems hurt investments during the period. Still, it is
worth recalling pension fund investments are managed for the long term, above
short term fluctuations. Results over the last 24 months show investment funds
yielded a healthy 5.24% for Fund 1, -1.00% in Fund 2, and -9.88% in Fund 3.
Prima’s returns from these funds ranked third, first and second system-wide.
Consolidated pension fund management companies’ Fund 2 nominal growth since the
system started operating averages 13.05%.
We show
below each fund’s share of the total manager portfolio to December
2008.
PRIMA AFP: Funds under
manaagement as of December 2008
|
|
Dec-08
|
|
|
%
|
|
|
Sep-08
|
|
|
%
|
|
Fund
1
|
|
|
397 |
|
|
|
8.2 |
% |
|
|
354 |
|
|
|
6.3 |
% |
Fund
2
|
|
|
3,355 |
|
|
|
69.0 |
% |
|
|
3,704 |
|
|
|
66.3 |
% |
Fund
3
|
|
|
1,110 |
|
|
|
22.8 |
% |
|
|
1,530 |
|
|
|
27.4 |
% |
Total
US$ mm
|
|
|
4,862 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
|
|
5,588 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
Source:
Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros
Financial
results
Revenues
Prima’s
fourth quarter revenues totaled US$15.5 million. Results for this period do not
include the impact of double collection from regular monthly salaries and
year-end bonuses. (Fund management companies’ revenues are usually 60 to 70%
higher in January and August when members receive their mid-year and year-end
mandatory bonuses.) A comparison of 2007 and 2008 fourth quarter revenues
(US$14.4 million in 4Q07) reveals a 7.8% increase.
Base
salaries used to figure out contributions to PRIMA are still the system’s
highest and commanded a 32.3% market share computed from the revenue and
administration fee figures disclosed by each pension manager. Therefore, the
total member monthly contributions to PRIMA are the system’s highest. The
administration fee is deducted from this total.
PRIMA’s
balance of voluntary contributions under management to November (based on data
from the Banks and Insurance Companies Commission) fell 28% quarter over
quarter, again as a consequence of slipping international financial
markets.
PRIMA AFP: Total earnings-US$
Million
|
|
PRIMA Nov-08
|
|
|
SISTEMA Nov-08
|
|
|
Part. %
|
|
Income
(1)
|
|
|
5.2 |
|
|
|
18.7 |
|
|
|
27.5 |
% |
Administrative
Fees (2)
|
|
|
1.50 |
% |
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
|
|
RAM
estimated base (3)
|
|
|
344 |
|
|
|
1,063 |
|
|
|
32.3 |
% |
Prima
AFP estimates. In acordance to local public informati,(CONASEV)
(1)
Average income from the last four months, excluding special colletions and
voluntary contibution fees
Available
information for the system as of november 2008.
(2)
Administrative fee of 1.75% would be effective since january 2009
(3)
RAM: Monthly Accumulated Salary
Expenditures
PRIMA’s
4Q08 operating expenses remained stable. Sales and administrative payroll
expenses trended slightly downward while marketing expenses dropped compared to
a quarter before.
Results
from operations this period reached US$2.9 million, in line with forecasts.
Results take account of merger related charges through the amortization of
assets included in the Purchase Price Allocation. Once the property and
equipment amortization and depreciation charges are added, D&A this quarter
totals US$2.2 million.
The
downward, but more stable, trend of the Peruvian currency QoQ, caused an
exchange translation effect and the adjustment of deferred liabilities that
resulted in a net loss of US$0.3 million. After tax and profit sharing
provisioning, PRIMA’s net earnings this period reached US$1.43 million. Net
accumulated earnings in 2008 totaled US11.20 million, exceeding our
expectations.
Compared
to a year ago, administration and sales costs were US$2.6 million higher in
4Q08, mainly as a result of deferring the cost of purchasing the Union Vida
customer portfolio.
At the
end of the fourth quarter, the company’s total assets were worth US$222.2
million, with matching liabilities totaling US$92.2 million and assets worth
US$129.2 million.
The
company’s main financial figures appear below.
PRIMA AFP: Main financial
indicators (US$ thousand) (1)
|
|
|
4Q08
|
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
|
Change %
4Q08/4Q07
|
|
|
2008
|
|
|
2007
|
|
|
Var % 08/07
|
|
Income
|
|
|
15,538 |
|
|
|
19,591 |
|
|
|
14,478 |
|
|
|
7.3 |
% |
|
|
70,720 |
|
|
|
54,417 |
|
|
|
-23.1 |
% |
Administrative
and sale expenses
|
|
|
(10,424 |
) |
|
|
(11,493 |
) |
|
|
(7,836 |
) |
|
|
33.0 |
% |
|
|
(41,818 |
) |
|
|
(38,022 |
) |
|
|
-9.1 |
% |
Depreciation
and amortization
|
|
|
(2,172 |
) |
|
|
(2,310 |
) |
|
|
(2,054 |
) |
|
|
5.7 |
% |
|
|
(8,802 |
) |
|
|
(8,389 |
) |
|
|
-4.7 |
% |
Net
operating income
|
|
|
2,942 |
|
|
|
5,788 |
|
|
|
4,588 |
|
|
|
-35.9 |
% |
|
|
20,101 |
|
|
|
8,006 |
|
|
|
-60.2 |
% |
Other
income and expenses, net
|
|
|
(933 |
) |
|
|
(844 |
) |
|
|
(959 |
) |
|
|
-2.8 |
% |
|
|
(4,155 |
) |
|
|
(3,793 |
) |
|
|
-8.7 |
% |
Workers'
protif sharing and Income tax
|
|
|
(245 |
) |
|
|
(1,695 |
) |
|
|
(1,443 |
) |
|
|
-83.0 |
% |
|
|
(5,082 |
) |
|
|
(1,310 |
) |
|
|
-74.2 |
% |
Net
income before translation results
|
|
|
1,764 |
|
|
|
3,249 |
|
|
|
2,186 |
|
|
|
-19.3 |
% |
|
|
10,864 |
|
|
|
2,903 |
|
|
|
-73.3 |
% |
Translation
results and deferred liabilities
|
|
|
(328 |
) |
|
|
(1,545 |
) |
|
|
119 |
|
|
|
-375.3 |
% |
|
|
337 |
|
|
|
128 |
|
|
|
-62.1 |
% |
Net
income (losses)
|
|
|
1,437 |
|
|
|
1,704 |
|
|
|
2,305 |
|
|
|
-37.7 |
% |
|
|
11,201 |
|
|
|
3,031 |
|
|
|
-72.9 |
% |
Total
Assets
|
|
|
222,242 |
|
|
|
237,950 |
|
|
|
246,095 |
|
|
|
-9.7 |
% |
|
|
222,242 |
|
|
|
246,391 |
|
|
|
10.9 |
% |
Total
Liabilities
|
|
|
92,975 |
|
|
|
106,382 |
|
|
|
116,485 |
|
|
|
-20.2 |
% |
|
|
92,975 |
|
|
|
116,784 |
|
|
|
25.6 |
% |
Equity
|
|
|
129,268 |
|
|
|
131,568 |
|
|
|
129,610 |
|
|
|
-0.3 |
% |
|
|
129,268 |
|
|
|
129,607 |
|
|
|
0.3 |
% |
(1)
(IFRS)
VI.
EL PACIFICO PERUANO SUIZA AND SUBSIDIARIES
VI.1
PACIFICO GROUP
Pacifico
Insurance Group, a consolidation of general (PPS), life (PV) and health (EPS)
insurance businesses, posted a US$9.8 million net loss in 4Q08, compared to
earnings totaling US$1.2 million in 3Q08.
The
difference in results is principally accounted for by i) a US$11.3 million loss
in 4Q08 triggered by the impact of the international financial meltdown on our
investments, and ii) windfall financial revenues worth US$5.9 million in 3Q08
thanks to earnings from securities sales.
Losses in
4Q08 are explained by the company’s decision in December to increase its
provisioning (PPS US$ -6.9 million and PV US$ -4.4 million) by adjusting its
portfolio value to reflect a more conservative policy and international
financial reporting standards. Once this special adjustment and the company’s
portfolio profile are factored into our analysis, a conservative and suitable
corporate investment exposure appears. This contrasts with the financial
revenues in 3Q08, which were comprised of earnings for US$5.9 million PPS earned
in August from sales on stock in Inversiones Centenario’s
portfolio.
It is
however noteworthy, that even though the investments’ results led to the poor
bottom line numbers reported, the insurance business itself improved
significantly after the changes in the company’s business strategy implemented
throughout the year. The technical results reached US$3.9 million in 4Q08
compared to a loss of US$0.4 million a quarter earlier. This improvement is
mainly the result of an important reduction in the claims rate at PPS that
dropped from 85.4% in 3Q08 to 77.2% in 4Q08.
Thus,
contributions to Credicorp in 4Q08 was hurt by the abovementioned adjustment in
PPS and PV investment portfolios, and a net translation loss of US$2.6 million,
totaling - US$7.4 million compared to a smaller loss under the same heading in
3Q08.
US$ Thousand
|
|
|
Net Earnings*
|
|
|
Ajustment for
|
|
|
Total Contribution
|
|
Period
|
|
|
PPS
|
|
|
PV
|
|
|
EPS
|
|
|
PGA
|
|
|
Consolidation and
|
|
|
to BAP
|
|
4Q07 |
|
|
|
(3,266 |
) |
|
|
3,351 |
|
|
|
768 |
|
|
|
853 |
|
|
|
(208 |
) |
|
|
645 |
|
1Q08 |
|
|
|
(121 |
) |
|
|
2,544 |
|
|
|
797 |
|
|
|
3,093 |
|
|
|
(750 |
) |
|
|
2,343 |
|
2Q08 |
|
|
|
(7,657 |
) |
|
|
692 |
|
|
|
(2,759 |
) |
|
|
(9,525 |
) |
|
|
2,311 |
|
|
|
(7,214 |
) |
3Q08 |
|
|
|
(2,537 |
) |
|
|
4,569 |
|
|
|
(900 |
) |
|
|
1,221 |
|
|
|
(4,810 |
) |
|
|
(3,589 |
) |
4Q08 |
|
|
|
(9,253 |
) |
|
|
1,156 |
|
|
|
(1,731 |
) |
|
|
(9,824 |
) |
|
|
2,384 |
|
|
|
(7,440 |
) |
Var
% 4Q08 / 3Q08
|
|
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
-75 |
% |
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
-905 |
% |
|
n.a.
|
|
|
n.a.
|
|
Var
% 4Q08 / 4Q07
|
|
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
-65 |
% |
|
|
-325 |
% |
|
|
-1251 |
% |
|
n.a.
|
|
|
|
-1253 |
% |
Net
results at year-end 2008 reached a total US$15.0 million compared to net profits
of US$12.5 million in 2007. The difference is mainly accounted for by the
US$11.3 million adjustment in portfolio value mentioned above and the increased
claims rate this year of 84.3% as compared to the previous year of 77.7%. Part
of the difference in net results is also due to the exchange rate translation
effect that resulted in a US$3.4 million loss in 2008 while in 2007 this same
effect resulted in a positive US$3.9 million, giving rise to a US$7.3 million
balance.
Net
earned premiums in 2008 reached US$405.7 million or 32% greater than a year
before. The following table shows the amounts of premiums in each segment.
Significant growth is evident in all cases from 2007 to 2008.
|
|
2008
|
|
|
2007
|
|
|
|
PPS
|
|
|
PV
|
|
|
EPS
|
|
|
PPS
|
|
|
PV
|
|
|
EPS
|
|
Total
Gross Premiums
|
|
|
296.8 |
|
|
|
178.2 |
|
|
|
116.5 |
|
|
|
240.4 |
|
|
|
136.7 |
|
|
|
91.4 |
|
Retained
Premiums
|
|
|
188.3 |
|
|
|
172.9 |
|
|
|
116.5 |
|
|
|
145.7 |
|
|
|
134.1 |
|
|
|
91.4 |
|
Net
Premiums Earned
|
|
|
175.1 |
|
|
|
115.5 |
|
|
|
116.4 |
|
|
|
128.3 |
|
|
|
89.1 |
|
|
|
91.2 |
|
PGA’s
share of the net earned premiums market at the end of November
2008 was 39.2% compared to 37.7% a year earlier.
General
expenses grew US$80.3 million or 10-9% larger in 2008, mainly accounted for by a
larger sales force at PV that added commercial momentum to accomplish 30.4%
growth in direct life insurance premiums. The general expenditures to net
premiums ratio at PGA dropped from 23.6% in 2007 to 19.8% in 2008.
Despite
negative results in 2008, Pacífico Grupo Asegurador companies continued to put
into practice their successful strategy to increase penetration of the persons’
insurance segment, to fragment and diversify risk, transfer exposure to large
corporate risk to the international reinsurance market, and thereby make results
more predictable and less volatile.
VI.2
PACIFICO GENERAL P&C INSURANCE (PPS)
Net
cumulative results to December 2008 totaled a US$19.6 million loss accounted for
by principally five major general risk claims that created losses for US$11.9
million (an equivalent to a seven point claim rate) and ii) a US$6.9 million
loss resulting from an adjustment to the value of the investment portfolio in
December triggered by the international financial crisis and its impact on the
Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) index.
The
recovery of PPS’s insurance is obvious. In 4Q08 its technical results reached
US$2.3million, a considerable improvement after the US$1.9 million loss posted
in 3Q08. Behind the recovery is principally the lower claims rate, down to 77.2%
in 4Q08 from 85.4% a quarter earlier. Nevertheless, the net –US$9.2 million 4Q08
net result was strongly impacted by the adjustment in stock valuation mentioned
earlier.
The
improvement in technical results from 3Q08 to 4Q08 is mainly accounted for by a
lower claims rate in Car & Mandatory Car (SOAT is the Spanish acronym)
insurance (down from 87.1% to 77.1%) and General Insurance (a drop from 74.4% to
60.3%). Steps in recent months to increase rates and deductibles as well as
changes in insurance contract terms improved technical results in these two
lines in 2008’s last quarter, as shown in the following table.
Technical
Results by Unit Business
|
|
4Q08 |
|
|
3Q08
|
|
US$
millon
|
|
Vehicles & SOAT
|
|
|
Assistance
|
|
|
P&C
|
|
|
TOTAL
PPS
|
|
|
Vehicles & SOAT
|
|
|
Assistance
|
|
|
P&C
|
|
|
TOTAL
PPS
|
|
Net
Premiums Earned
|
|
|
19.1 |
|
|
|
12.1 |
|
|
|
16.4 |
|
|
|
47.6 |
|
|
|
17.2 |
|
|
|
11.4 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
45.7 |
|
Technical
Results
|
|
|
0.1 |
|
|
|
(1.3 |
) |
|
|
3.5 |
|
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
|
(2.3 |
) |
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
(1.9 |
) |
Net
claims / Earned Net Premiums
|
|
|
77.1 |
% |
|
|
100.2 |
% |
|
|
60.3 |
% |
|
|
77.2 |
% |
|
|
87.1 |
% |
|
|
99.2 |
% |
|
|
74.4 |
% |
|
|
85.4 |
% |
Technical
Results / Earned net Premiums
|
|
|
0.5 |
% |
|
|
-10.8 |
% |
|
|
21.6 |
% |
|
|
4.9 |
% |
|
|
-13.6 |
% |
|
|
-9.4 |
% |
|
|
8.7 |
% |
|
|
-4.2 |
% |
Car &
Mandatory Car technical results
totaling US$0.1 million in 4Q08 are an improvement over 3Q08, though still below
target. The recovery reveals the positive impact of new policies and insurance
terms in a branch experiencing steeply rising theft rates. Total car theft
nationwide reached US$6.7 million between 2000 and 2007 while in 2008 car theft
is expected to reach US$35 million.
The
company will continue to put its claim reduction plan into force. Even better
results are expected as we renew the car portfolio and cease to renew undesired
business SOAT certificates.
Technical
results in Health Care totaled –US$1.3 million
in 4Q08, slightly worse than 3Q08’s -US$1.1 million. A strategy to stabilize
this business line continues to focus on reviewing rates and terms while
protecting competitiveness through outstanding service quality.
Claims
rates for General Insurance continued to fall for the third month in a row (2Q08
109%, 3Q08 74.4% and 4Q08 60.3%) following a strategy to develop capacities to
underwrite risk, and manage reinsurance to reduce retention and volatility of
the company’s bottom line.
PPS posted US$4.1 million
net financial loss in 4Q08 compared to
earnings of US$8.7 million in 3Q08. The drop is explained mainly through the
loss of stock value totaling US$6.9 million in December as explained above and
earnings of US$5.9 million from sales of Inversiones Centenario stock in August.
In sum,
during 4Q08, PPS, the general insurance branch, (i) saw revenues from net
insurance premiums totaling US$47.6 million while (ii) total operation costs
reached US$55.1 million. These figures give a (iii) 116% combined ratio of which
77 percent points may be attributed to costs or expenses related to net claims,
18 percent points are due to business purchase costs, and the remaining 21% are
general and administrative expenses.
Pacifico
General Insurance’s business line is actively pursuing initiatives in the three
fronts of claims and purchase costs and general expenses to significantly bring
down its combined ratio. Remarkably, this indicator has slipped for the third
quarter in a row, from 144% in 2Q08 to 116% in 4Q08.
VI.3
PACIFICO VIDA
Pacifico
Life Insurance (PV is the Spanish acronym) earned US$1.9 million before minority
interests in 4Q08, lower than 3Q08’s US$7.4 million.
Lower
quarter-to-quarter earnings stem mainly from 4Q08 losses realized in sales of
securities after the December correction of US$4.4 million created by the world
financial meltdown, and greater provisioning reaching US$2.8 million stemming
from degrading investments backing life products with a savings component. These
were partly offset by sales of US Treasury bonds totaling US$2.2 million in
December. Significantly, 3Q08 posted US$1.1 million earnings from sales of
Sovereign Global Bonds, and another US$0.95million from sales of local corporate
bonds.
Products
|
|
Total Premiums
|
|
|
Change %
|
|
(US$ Million)
|
|
|
4Q08
|
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
|
|
3Q08
|
|
|
|
4Q07
|
|
Individual
life
|
|
|
11.6 |
|
|
|
11.1 |
|
|
|
9.3 |
|
|
|
5.2 |
% |
|
|
25.7 |
% |
Individual
annuity
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
|
|
9.4 |
|
|
|
11.0 |
|
|
|
-14.8 |
% |
|
|
-27.7 |
% |
Disability
& survivor ( Pénsion)
|
|
|
9.0 |
|
|
|
9.3 |
|
|
|
7.4 |
|
|
|
-3.1 |
% |
|
|
22.3 |
% |
Credit
Life
|
|
|
5.7 |
|
|
|
5.4 |
|
|
|
3.2 |
|
|
|
6.0 |
% |
|
|
77.2 |
% |
Personal
accidents
|
|
|
2.6 |
|
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
3.4 |
% |
|
|
30.9 |
% |
Group
life (Law)
|
|
|
1.9 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
|
|
-10.2 |
% |
|
|
21.3 |
% |
Group
life
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
2.9 |
|
|
|
3.1 |
|
|
|
3.7 |
% |
|
|
-2.0 |
% |
Limited
workers compensation
|
|
|
2.2 |
|
|
|
2.7 |
|
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
|
-21.0 |
% |
|
|
17.0 |
% |
TOTAL
|
|
|
44.037 |
|
|
|
45.4027 |
|
|
|
39.3674 |
|
|
|
-3.0 |
% |
|
|
11.9 |
% |
General
expenses dropped 12.2% QoQ to US$7.4 million. The expenditures to net earned
premiums fell from 27% in 3Q08 to 23% in 4Q08. The net earned claims rate
dropped from 70.1% in 3Q08 to 68.8% in 4Q08, mainly thanks to improvements in
pension insurance plans.
PV’s
results before minority interests in 2008 reached US$14.4 million, 42% lower
than in 2007 due to a rise in the claims rate from 71% to 74.3%. Pension
insurance plans experienced the greatest claims’ increases. There, claims
reached 141.0% in 2008 due to the required adjustments to reserves arising from
higher rates payable for guarantee assets triggered by the international
crisis
VI.4
PACIFICO HEALTH (EPS)
Health
business posted US$1.7 million losses in 4Q08, larger than the US$0.9 million
loss posted in 3Q08.
Technical
results reached US$0.6 million in 4Q08 compared to US$1.4 million in 3Q08. The
accounting loss is mainly accounted for by:
i)
|
a
2.7% drop compared to 3Q08 in revenues after local currency denominated
contributions from clients are converted into dollars simultaneously with
a rising dollar exchange rate, and the additional contributions in 3Q08
linked to July bonuses earned by members on corporate
payrolls.
|
ii)
|
a
larger claims rate, 91.3% in 4Q08 (2 points above 3Q08). Quarterly claims
rates were significantly impaired by larger IBNR (incurred but not
reported) reserves reaching US$2.1 million in 4Q08 compared to US$1.3
million a quarter earlier.
|
To reduce
the claims rate the company enforces a plan to standardize and increase rates,
co-insurance and deductibles for high consumption accounts. It also has adjusted
the terms of health contracts to reduce service costs and improve technical
results.
General
expenses totaling US$2.4 million are 8% lower than a quarter earlier, thanks
mainly to lower cost of third party services. The EPS’s cost management and
containment have reduced the general expenses to net earned premium ratio to
8.2%.
By
2008-end, the company posted US$4.6 million loss compared to earnings of US$2.7
million in 2007.
Total
claims in 2008 were worth US$105.1 million reflecting a net claims rate for
earned premiums of 90.3% compared to 82.4% in the year before. In addition to
the increased cost of health care and larger provisioning, the company also
witnessed greater frequency in use of insurance services, reflecting the
consumers’ growing purchasing power.
General
expenses in 2008 reached US$10.8 million, or 2% above 2007 figures. As a percent
of net earned premiums, general expenses reached 8.9% in 2008, compared to 11.1%
in 2007, in line with international standards.
VII.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic
Activity
Peru’s
economy grew 5.1% in November, the slowest since April 2006, as a result of
banking holidays during the Asia Pacific Economic Council (APEC) summit and
slower foreign demand. Internal demand, including construction, services and
commerce continued to expand while export-driven industries (both conventional
and non conventional) slowed down significantly.
This
differential behavior can be more readily seen in non primary manufacturing for
exports where apparel (-10.0% in November and -0.9% from January to November)
and yarns and textiles (-15.6% and -2.6% down in the same period) evidently
suffer the impact of the international recession, while other industries like
metal products for the construction industry (+20.2% and +31.0%, respectively)
and non alcoholic beverages (+14.9% and 13.8%) continue to grow at annually
adjusted double digit rates. Ironically, mining grew 12.4% in November, the
fastest growth that month though this was the consequence of the impact on
statistics of the coming in line of Block 56 that expanded hydrocarbons output
by over 20%. Block 56 contributes almost 5% of total mining output.
Although
the international recession looms larger, the growth outlook for coming months
remains strong, largely relying on lively domestic demand which, however, is
expected to decline as 2009 wears on through the combined impact of higher and
more volatile exchange rates, and lower disposable incomes, a consequence of
deteriorating terms of trade. Countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies will
then become all the more important, to stimulate infrastructure and low income
housing projects, on the one hand, and lower interest rates to foster growth of
credits, on the other. Once account is taken of last year’s fiscal surplus of
2.0% of GDP and the Central Bank’s prime rate currently stands at 6.5% (against
the background of sliding annual inflation rates) there is ample room for both
types of policies.
Gross
Domestic Product and Internal Demand
(Annualized
percentage variation)
Source: INEI
External
Sector
Peru’s
trade surplus in the 12 months to November reached US$4 billion or less than the
US$4.5 billion surplus at the end of 2007. This is accounted for by annually
adjusted growth of imports reaching 36.4% (principally capital goods and inputs,
higher oil and food prices, compared to 2007, despite a year-end correction). To
this we must add a 4.7% fall in exports. Foreign sales from December 2007 to
November 2008 reached US$32.2 billion. Non traditional exports performed
significantly better (+25.7%) than conventional exports (+13.9%). Inputs exports
grew 44.2% while capital goods exports expanded 57.5%. Consumer goods exports
moved more slowly (41.6%). Discounting for the price effect, imports grew at an
annual 23.7% (31.8% to year end 2007) reflecting a still strong domestic
demand.
Finally,
the Central Bank’s repeated foreign currency sales, foreign currency reserves
grew at a more moderate annual pace reaching US$30,386 million to January 20, or
US$810 million less than at the end of 2008. (Foreign currency reserves peaked
at US$35,625 million in April last year).
Exports
and Imports
(Annualized
percentage variation)
Source:
BCRP
Prices
and Exchange rate
Cumulative
inflation in Metropolitan Lima at the end of 2008 reached 6.65%, well above the
Central Bank’s inflation target (2% ± 1%) and last year’s final 3.9% figure.
This is the highest inflation since inflation targeting was introduced in
2002.
Inflation
surged despite lower international food prices and slower local fuel prices made
possible by the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund. However, price increase inertia
led to higher prices even for non tradable goods and services.
Given the
decline in the international economy, commodity prices are expected to remain
low, thus tampering pressure for higher prices in coming months. Against this
backdrop, the Central Bank cut legal reserve rates for deposits in domestic and
foreign currencies, though they are still higher than at the beginning of 2008.
This policy is expected to continue.
In an
international scenario of greater risk and avid search for more liquid and
secure assets, capitals have started to leave emerging markets, resulting in
higher exchange rates in Latin America in general, and Peru in particular. In
recent weeks, the Nuevo Sol has depreciated at an annually adjusted rate of
about 7.0% despite the Central Bank’s interventions in the currency market. The
Central Bank has been effective in moderating exchange volatility but not to
revert the upward trend of the exchange rate. Central Bank sales since October
border four billion dollars. The exchange rate reaches about 3.15 nuevos soles
to the dollar though amidst greater volatility driven by the stronger dollar
worldwide, in particular against the euro and the UK pound.
Consumer
price index
|
|
Exchange
Rate and purchases US$ BCRP
|
(Annual
percentage variation)
|
|
(S/.
per dollar and US$ MM)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
INEI, BCR
Fiscal
Sector
Tax
revenues grew 5.1% year over year to reach total 15.6% GDP tax pressure.
Collection surged significantly in the first nine months and slowed down in the
last quarter, consistent with a world economic slowdown and the impact of the
world financial meltdown.
Value
added tax collection grew 18.2% while third category income tax expanded 6.6%.
Together they account for almost 80% of total tax revenues. Collection of back
taxes fell (-41.4%) thanks to lower mining sector payments resulting from high
payments on account during 2007 that closely matched tax payments due by the
mining industry.
On the
expenditure side, government expenses moved at a lively pace, expanding by 50%
in real terms, at both central, and regional and local government levels. In
addition to moderate increases (4.3%) in current expenses, higher expenditure
translated into a smaller government bottom line (2.2% of GDP) compared to 2007
(3.1% of GDP).
Fiscal
Income of the Central Government
(Annual
percentage variation)
Source:
Sunat
Banking
System
Preliminary
Central Bank reports to December revealed bank loans in dollars expanded 27.0%
in 2008 (compared to 41.0% in 2006 and 36.9% to June 2008), despite an upward
trending exchange rate in the second half that mitigated the expansion in soles
(33.8% in 2008, even higher than the 30.9% rate of 2007). Consumer loans
expanded the most (40.1% to September and 47.3% to 2007-close). Also to be
highlighted is the 35.4% growth in commercial and micro-business loans. Home
loans grew at a faster pace that rose from 16.3% in December 2007 to 21.5%
growth pace at the end of 2008 (though the expansion clip had reached 24.3%
annually in September).
Deposits
continued to grow as well. Dollar denominated deposits grew 28.4% compared to
year end 2007 (when year over year growth reached 30.8%). Growth took place
mainly in term deposits (36.3%). Other deposits (demand deposits, savings and
CTS severance accounts) grew at a lower than average annual rate.
Dollars
in the banking system shrank as a percent of total bank funds, although the
trend reverted partially toward year end, responding to a change in patterns in
time deposits where the dollar share shrank from 65.7% to 55.8%, though a
parallel reduction was seen in dollar denominated in savings (a drop from 56.7%
to 54.5%). Dollarization of demand deposits increased from 48.3% to 53.4% (after
reaching a 42.4% low in April). Dollar loans accounted for 57.8% of total loans
(after reaching 61.8% in December 2007), principally thanks to small mortgage
loans in dollars (from 80.2% to 71.1%).
Finally,
interest rates trended down again after a third quarter surge prompted by a
higher perceived country risk. The lending rate in local currency (TAMN) closed
2008 at 23.0% (22.3% at the end of 2007 but 24.3% in September 2008). The
interest rate charged for dollar denominated loans (TAMEX) closed at 10.5% (as
at the end of 2007). The interest rates paid for deposits in local and foreign
currency closed 2008 at 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively. It is worth highlighting
these latter figures as they are lower than the corresponding rates at the end
of 2007 (2.5%) that resulted from an increase in perceptions of greater upward
pressures on exchange rates.
Main
Financial Indicators
|
|
2006
|
|
|
2007
|
|
|
2008
|
|
|
|
Year
|
|
|
IQ
|
|
|
IIQ
|
|
|
IIIQ
|
|
|
IVQ
|
|
|
Year
(E)
|
|
|
IQ
|
|
|
IIQ
|
|
|
IIIQ
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP
(US$ MM)
|
|
|
92,439 |
|
|
|
23,855 |
|
|
|
27,510 |
|
|
|
26,579 |
|
|
|
29,561 |
|
|
|
107,504 |
|
|
|
23,855 |
|
|
|
27,510 |
|
|
|
26,579 |
|
Real
GDP (var. %)
|
|
|
7.7 |
|
|
|
8.5 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
|
|
8.9 |
|
|
|
9.8 |
|
|
|
8.9 |
|
|
|
9.7 |
|
|
|
11.0 |
|
|
|
9.5 |
|
GDP
per-cápita (US$)
|
|
|
3,400 |
|
|
|
3,454 |
|
|
|
3,971 |
|
|
|
3,825 |
|
|
|
4,242 |
|
|
|
3,873 |
|
|
|
3,413 |
|
|
|
3,924 |
|
|
|
3,768 |
|
Domestic
demand (var. %)
|
|
|
10.3 |
|
|
|
11.5 |
|
|
|
10.8 |
|
|
|
13.4 |
|
|
|
11.7 |
|
|
|
11.8 |
|
|
|
11.6 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
|
|
13.3 |
|
Consumption
(var. %)
|
|
|
6.4 |
|
|
|
8.3 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
|
|
9.0 |
|
|
|
8.3 |
|
|
|
8.3 |
|
|
|
9.0 |
|
|
|
8.9 |
|
Private
Investment (var. %)
|
|
|
18.9 |
|
|
|
16.9 |
|
|
|
22.5 |
|
|
|
27.9 |
|
|
|
22.5 |
|
|
|
22.6 |
|
|
|
23.0 |
|
|
|
35.8 |
|
|
|
31.6 |
|
CPI
(annual change, %)
|
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
1.6 |
|
|
|
2.8 |
|
|
|
3.9 |
|
|
|
3.9 |
|
|
|
5.5 |
|
|
|
5.7 |
|
|
|
6.2 |
|
Exchange
rate, eop (S/. per US$)
|
|
|
3.20 |
|
|
|
3.18 |
|
|
|
3.17 |
|
|
|
3.09 |
|
|
|
3.00 |
|
|
|
3.00 |
|
|
|
2.74 |
|
|
|
2.97 |
|
|
|
2.98 |
|
Devaluation
(annual change, %)
|
|
|
-6.8 |
|
|
|
-5.2 |
|
|
|
-2.8 |
|
|
|
-5.0 |
|
|
|
-6.1 |
|
|
|
-6.1 |
|
|
|
-13.8 |
|
|
|
-6.4 |
|
|
|
-3.56 |
|
Exchange
rate, average (S/. per US$)
|
|
|
3.26 |
|
|
|
3.19 |
|
|
|
3.17 |
|
|
|
3.14 |
|
|
|
2.98 |
|
|
|
3.12 |
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
|
|
2.82 |
|
|
|
2.90 |
|
Non-Financial
Public Sector (% of GDP)
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
5.0 |
|
|
|
8.1 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
-2.4 |
|
|
|
3.1 |
|
|
|
4.3 |
|
|
|
5.4 |
|
|
|
1.5 |
|
Central
government current revenues (% of GD
|
|
|
17.4 |
|
|
|
17.3 |
|
|
|
20.4 |
|
|
|
17.5 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
18.1 |
|
|
|
18.1 |
|
|
|
19.5 |
|
|
|
18.5 |
|
Tax
Income (% of GDP)
|
|
|
15.0 |
|
|
|
14.9 |
|
|
|
17.6 |
|
|
|
15.2 |
|
|
|
14.7 |
|
|
|
15.6 |
|
|
|
15.5 |
|
|
|
16.5 |
|
|
|
15.8 |
|
Non
Tax Income (% of GDP)
|
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
|
2.8 |
|
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
|
2.4 |
|
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
|
2.6 |
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
2.7 |
|
Current
expenditures (% of GDP)
|
|
|
12.3 |
|
|
|
11.7 |
|
|
|
14.0 |
|
|
|
11.5 |
|
|
|
13.1 |
|
|
|
12.6 |
|
|
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
10.6 |
|
|
|
16.2 |
|
Capital
expenditures (% of GDP)
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
0.7 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
|
4.0 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
1.7 |
|
|
|
2.5 |
|
Trade
Balance (US$ MM)
|
|
|
8,934 |
|
|
|
1,539 |
|
|
|
2,245 |
|
|
|
2,300 |
|
|
|
2,273 |
|
|
|
8,356 |
|
|
|
1,457 |
|
|
|
910 |
|
|
|
821 |
|
Exports
(US$ MM)
|
|
|
23,800 |
|
|
|
5,747 |
|
|
|
6,741 |
|
|
|
7,594 |
|
|
|
7,874 |
|
|
|
27,956 |
|
|
|
7,721 |
|
|
|
8,460 |
|
|
|
8,796 |
|
Imports
(US$ MM)
|
|
|
14,866 |
|
|
|
4,208 |
|
|
|
4,497 |
|
|
|
5,294 |
|
|
|
5,601 |
|
|
|
19,599 |
|
|
|
6,264 |
|
|
|
7,550 |
|
|
|
7,975 |
|
Current
Account Balance (US$ MM)
|
|
|
2,755 |
|
|
|
92 |
|
|
|
368 |
|
|
|
500 |
|
|
|
544 |
|
|
|
1,505 |
|
|
|
-744 |
|
|
|
-1,282 |
|
|
|
-845 |
|
Current
Account Balance (% of GDP)
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
0.4 |
|
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
|
1.9 |
|
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
-3.1 |
|
|
|
-4.7 |
|
|
|
-3.2 |
|